Afya

Moat composition and weights: (1) Regulatory barriers and efficient scale (weight 35%): High.

Brazil’s MEC strictly allocates medical seats and supervises quality; Afya operates within capacity‑limited regions and amassed 3,768 approved seats, including incremental authorizations in Nov/Dec 2025 and Feb 2026. This creates durable, regionally efficient scale that deters new entrants. Score: 88. (2) Switching costs (weight 25%): High.

Students rarely transfer mid‑degree due to lost time/credits and entrance exam constraints across six‑year programs, supporting sticky cash flows. Score: 90. (3) Cost advantage and scale (weight 20%): Moderate‑high. Centralized content, intake, shared services, and post‑acquisition playbooks improve unit economics.

Score: 78. (4) Intangibles/brand (weight 10%): Mixed. Strong recognition in medical education, but public scrutiny of campus exam outcomes tempers the brand layer. Score: 60. (5) Network effects (weight 10%): Modest in digital (Whitebook/iClinic) with cross‑sell data loops yet recent MAU softness. Score: 55. Weighted outcome ≈ low‑80s.

Evidence set: seat count/guidance and cash metrics from FY25/1Q26 disclosures; MEC’s 2026 policy and ENAMED enforcement context.