CF Industries

CF’s earnings are inherently cyclical, driven by nitrogen product prices, agricultural demand, and Henry Hub gas. EIA expects U.S. gas to average roughly 3.5 to 4.0 dollars per MMBtu over 2025–2026, implying some input cost variability.

Still, CF’s U.S. gas exposure is a positive relative to Europe, and the company increasingly uses forward sales and multi‑year industrial offtakes.

The clean‑energy platform (45Q credits, premium low‑carbon cargoes, and the Blue Point JV with JERA/Mitsui) should add a more contracted, policy‑backstopped layer over time, modestly improving visibility versus past cycles. Overall, revenue and cash flow remain tied to commodity cycles despite these offsets.