Cincinnati Financial

Premium growth is steady, but earnings and free cash flow are variable due to catastrophe losses and equity mark-to-market.

In 2025, underwriting improved with a Q3 combined ratio around 88%, yet nine-months remained near 98% given California wildfire losses in Q1. The equity portfolio’s fair value and gains materially influence reported results, adding volatility that is atypical versus bond‑oriented peers.

We view top-line and book value compounding as reasonably predictable over a cycle, but near-term FCF and EPS can swing. Diversification via Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global helps, but also introduces reinsurance cycle sensitivity.