ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

Intangible assets (weight 45%): Strong. NUPLAZID enjoys validated Orange Book protections and favorable court outcomes; a settlement with Zydus permits 10 mg tablet generics no earlier than September 23, 2036 and 34 mg capsules no earlier than February 27, 2038, while Federal Circuit decisions in 2025 affirmed key patents.

DAYBUE has U.S. orphan drug designation and a Rett syndrome use patent listed with a 2032 expiry that may be extendable to 2036, plus a new STIX formulation approved in December 2025. These create real but time‑bounded barriers. Switching costs (20%): Moderate.

With few or no labeled alternatives, prescribers and caregivers can be sticky once benefit is observed, though DAYBUE tolerability issues (notably diarrhea and weight loss) can drive discontinuation in some patients. Network effects (5%): Weak. No platform or marketplace dynamics. Cost advantage (10%): Moderate.

Scale in specialty distribution and manufacturing plus royalty structures support >90% gross margins, but royalty payments to partners and rare‑disease service intensity limit unique cost edge. Efficient scale (20%): Moderate to strong.

Rett syndrome is a small, concentrated market where a single supplier can profitably serve demand, yet future gene therapies may reshape market structure. Overall, multiple defensible moats exist, primarily IP and efficient scale, but durability is capped by patent lives, possible EU setbacks, and innovative entrants.