ACM Research

Predictability is the weakest pillar. Revenue recognition for first tools occurs upon customer acceptance, which creates timing volatility in revenue, working capital and free cash flow.

The end market is cyclic and capex-driven, and ACM’s 2025 revenue was roughly 99.6 percent from mainland China, exposing the model to licensing and policy changes beyond management’s control.

While management reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance and reported robust shipments, we continue to discount for acceptance timing, customer concentration and macro-policy overlays.