Adaptive Bio

Revenue visibility is improving but not yet at tollbooth levels. TTM revenue is roughly 295 million dollars (2025 total 276.98 plus Q1 2026 70.87 minus Q1 2025 52.44), with Q1 2026 MRD revenue up 53% year over year and full‑year 2026 MRD guidance raised to 260–270 million dollars.

This reflects a healthy recurring‑testing dynamic as patients are monitored longitudinally. However, consolidated earnings and cash flows remain negative, and Immune Medicine revenue is lumpy after the termination of the Genentech collaboration effective February 2026. The Microsoft collaboration has also concluded, reducing non‑MRD visibility.

Geographic and payer concentration are U.S.‑heavy but in a favorable jurisdiction. On balance, we assign mid‑50s for predictability.