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Advanced Flower Capital

AFCG
NASDAQ
$2.68

How predictable is Advanced Flower Capital's business?

Predictability is weak at present. Nonaccruals represented 23.5% of total debt investments at fair value (36.6% at amortized cost) at March 31, 2026, which impairs visibility into cash collections and net investment income.

While Q1 2026 produced positive NII of 4.83 million (0.21 per share) and NAV per share rose to 7.90, the legacy book’s workouts and recoveries remain a swing factor. Pre-conversion 2025 results underscore volatility: full-year net loss of 20.7 million but distributable earnings of 8.65 million (0.39 per share).

Our inference from filings is that Q4 2025 distributable earnings were roughly negative 0.13 per share (full-year 0.39 less Q1–Q3 year-to-date 0.52), which highlights quarter-to-quarter noise from credit and tax items. Until the portfolio is rebalanced and nonaccruals resolved, predictability remains limited.