Advanced Micro Devices

Recurrence is improving, but semis remain cyclical. AMD’s embedded and adaptive (Xilinx) portfolio adds steadier revenue streams, and data center CPU and accelerator demand offers secular growth. Still, PC and gaming cycles, hyperscaler digestion, export restrictions, and supply chain risks introduce variability.

Q2 2025’s large China-related inventory charge underscores sensitivity to policy. We expect multi-year growth powered by AI, but we do not underwrite the same tollbooth-like predictability as card networks or software utilities.