Affirm

Affirm’s moat today is a blend of distribution, data, and scale. Intangible assets and data: the brand’s promise of no late fees and transparent terms plus years of repayment data across categories strengthen underwriting. We view this as 65/100 in strength.

Network effects: two‑sided usage exists as more merchants attract more consumers and vice versa, now amplified by being natively selectable in Apple Pay and by Shopify’s U.S. exclusivity for Shop Pay Installments.

Still, wallets and platforms can also surface rivals, so we score this 60/100. Switching costs: for large merchants the integration is meaningful but not prohibitive; wallet-level integrations reduce frictions to switch providers, so we score 55/100. Cost advantages: securitization scale, warehouse lines, and forward-flow buyers improve funding costs over smaller peers, but banks retain a lower natural cost of capital; we score 50/100. Efficient scale: select exclusive arrangements (for example, Shop Pay Installments in the U.S.) are valuable, but BNPL overall is not capacity constrained; we score 45/100. Weighting these factors yields an estimated moat score near the high‑50s.

Evidence supporting distribution and scale includes Apple Pay and Shopify integrations and steadily rising revenue efficiency vs. GMV.