agilon health

Contracted capitation produces recurring revenue, but earnings are sensitive to medical cost trend, prior‑period development, star ratings, and risk adjustment. 2025 results showed negative medical margin and a gross loss; 2026 is rebounding with Q2 medical margin of $197 million and raised guidance, yet management still embeds cost trend assumptions around the low‑7% range and acknowledges utilization uncertainty.

Net membership declined due to market and payor exits designed to improve unit economics, which aids predictability but reduces scale benefits in the near term. Overall visibility is better than in 2025 but remains moderate.