AIRO

Moat components and our view: Intangibles 65-70 (brand credibility from battlefield deployment plus Blue UAS clearance improves trust and procurement speed), Switching costs 55 (once fielded, militaries embed training, payloads, and CONOPS, but orders are still PO-based and can shift), Cost advantage 40 (vertical integration helps on cost and availability but scale lags large peers), Network effects 10 (limited), Efficient scale 50 (small fixed-wing ISR niches can support a few players but primes and larger Blue UAS vendors crowd adjacent lanes).

Weighting intangibles and switching costs most heavily yields about 55. Key supports: addition of RQ-35 to the U.S. Blue UAS Cleared List in July 2026, major Q2 2026 deliveries with 64 percent gross margin, and a roughly 163 million drones backlog providing near-term visibility.

Offsets: intense competition from Blue UAS peers such as Skydio and Anduril, and the company’s still-small scale.