Alcoa

Moat component scoring and weights: cost advantages 45/100 (weight 40 percent) from vertical integration in bauxite and alumina and selective hydro‑powered smelting, plus the 10‑year NYPA renewable contract for Massena beginning April 1, 2026; efficient scale 35/100 (weight 20 percent) in certain refineries and smelters, though global capacity remains abundant; intangible assets 30/100 (weight 15 percent) via Sustana low‑carbon brands and the ELYSIS JV, which could reduce carbon and potentially power premiums if scaled; switching costs 20/100 (weight 15 percent) since customers can source standardized commodity; network effects 0/100 (weight 10 percent).

Weighted result approximates 38/100. Principal moat threats: Chinese and Middle Eastern supply, energy cost volatility and policy shifts that can re‑order cost curves; regulatory and permitting risk in Australia impacting mine plans. ELYSIS progress to a 450 kA cell is encouraging but pre‑commercial.