Amazon

Amazon’s growth and cash flows are relatively predictable, backed by large recurring revenue streams and secular trends. The company has a huge base of over 200 million Prime subscribers globally who provide steady subscription income and drive consistent purchasing on the platform.

AWS also contributes a recurring, usage-based revenue stream from businesses that rely on Amazon’s cloud services. These subscription-like businesses (Prime, AWS, and to an extent advertising tied to an active user base) lend stability and visibility to Amazon’s financials.

Over the past decade, Amazon has delivered remarkably consistent revenue growth, averaging well above 15% annually. Even at its current scale, Amazon continues to grow ~10–15% per year; for instance, trailing twelve-month sales were about 12% higher year-over-year and this rate has been steady.

This reflects robust, ongoing demand in e-commerce and cloud computing – both long-term growth markets.

While Amazon is not immune to economic cycles (consumers may pull back spending in recessions, or cloud clients might optimize costs in slowdowns), its diversification across millions of products, services, and global markets smooths out volatility.

The company’s broad portfolio – from everyday retail goods to enterprise cloud contracts – makes its overall business less cyclical than a single-line company. We also take comfort in Amazon’s proactive adaptation to trends: it capitalizes on tailwinds like the shift to online shopping, cloud adoption, and digital advertising.

There are some uncertainties (e.g. potential regulatory changes or short-term post-pandemic normalization in retail demand), but by and large Amazon’s revenue and cash flow trajectory has proven reliably upward.

We consider Amazon’s business reasonably predictable for a company of its size and breadth, underpinned by recurring customer behaviors and long-term technological trends.