American Express

Revenue and cash flow are quite predictable. AmEx’s core revenues (card fees, card-transaction discounts, interest on revolving balances) recur from its large base of 100M card accounts. Spending trends remain stable: Q1 2025 saw FX-adjusted revenue +8%), and total card spending continued growing 6–7%.

Management reaffirmed 2025 revenue guidance of 8–10% growth). High-income consumer spending and global travel (AmEx’s focus) are secular tailwinds, giving visibility beyond economic downturns. The business is not highly cyclical commodity – card usage dips less than, say, airline traffic in recessions. We therefore give 85 for predictability.

The business model is simple and transparent, with no reliance on one volatile product or region. Global scale (operations in ~200 countries) further smooths out local risks.