Arista Networks

Arista’s revenue trajectory is driven by well-understood, secular trends (cloud buildout, AI/ML networking, 5G backhaul). Historically, Arista has delivered steady double-digit growth (e.g., +33.8% in 2023, +19.5% in 2024). Its major customers include stable technology giants (Microsoft, Meta) investing continuously in infrastructure.

A portion of sales is subscription/maintenance (18-19%), adding some recurring revenue. However, demand can be cyclical: data center capex slows during tech downturns, and Arista’s sales are lumpy due to large orders from a few customers.

The company’s management still forecasts growth and appears confident (it guided above expectations in early 2024). In sum, the growth pattern is fairly predictable and will likely follow the tech investment cycles, but it’s not as monotonically reliable as a utility or toll-booth business.

We rate predictability as above-average (mid-70s) – consistent growth with some cyclic sensitivity.