Assured Guaranty

Policy cash flows and investment income are relatively steady, but GAAP earnings swing with marks on derivatives, alternatives, FX and consolidated VIEs. We therefore rely on adjusted operating results and in-force value.

Adjusted operating EPS was $3.74 in 1H 2026 versus $4.21 in 1H 2025; full-year 2025 adjusted operating EPS was $9.08, implying TTM adjusted operating EPS near 8.6 by adding 2H 2025 (~4.87) to 1H 2026 (3.74).

ABV per share reached $189.72 at June 30, 2026, reflecting the present value of expected future revenue streams and deferred premiums, which provides an intrinsic value anchor.

Demand in the muni market is reasonably resilient and defaults are structurally rare relative to corporates over long horizons, supporting long-term predictability of losses and underwriting margins.

Key uncertainties include insurance penetration shifting with rates/spreads, and idiosyncratic credits (for example, PREPA) causing loss and timing variability.