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BALL

NYSE: BALL · USD

BALL (BALL) Economic Moat Analysis50

Competitive advantages, dated evidence and erosion risks.

Narrow economic moat

Ball has a limited moat from established customer relationships and long-term supply commitments, supported by reported high retention and shipment growth. These support contractual customer stickiness, although substantial switching costs are not demonstrated. Aluminum cost pass-through provides protection rather than clear discretionary pricing power. Substitutes, large customers and incomplete cost recovery constrain durability; scale alone does not establish a cost advantage.

Switching costs

Established supply relationships and numerous long-term contracts provide a modest contractual barrier to customer displacement. Reported high retention and growing shipments support current customer stickiness, but do not establish technical switching costs or customer captivity.

Durability
Potentially persists through existing supply commitments and continued service performance. Contract lengths, renewal economics and termination provisions are undisclosed, limiting confidence beyond a narrow moat.
Competitors
Comparison not established
Erosion risks
Large customers can exert bargaining pressure. Competing packaging materials and potentially cheaper competing products constrain pricing. Aluminum pass-through protects input recovery but does not demonstrate a differentiated price premium.
What would invalidate the thesis
Repeated losses or nonrenewals of major supply contracts, sustained shipment underperformance against the can market, or renewal concessions that persistently reduce conversion earnings would invalidate the customer-stickiness thesis.
Evidence (4) · Counterevidence (4)

Changes since the previous analysis

  • No comparable previous version.

Evidence limitations

  • All supplied evidence is issuer disclosure. High retention, market outperformance and operational improvements are issuer-reported; retention rates and independent competitor comparisons are absent.
  • No competing company is explicitly identified as a competitor. Acquisition counterparties and compensation references do not establish competitor coverage, so the competitor array is empty.
  • Contract duration, exclusivity, termination rights, renewal concessions and customer switching expenses are missing. The narrow verdict rests on modest contractual stickiness.
  • The passages do not establish relative unit costs, local capacity barriers, proprietary technology advantages or network effects.
  • Base-price realization and a pricing-versus-volume bridge are absent. Pricing grades reflect disclosed aluminum pricing mechanics and their effects, not demonstrated premium pricing.
  • Actual executive beneficial ownership is not supplied. The March 17, 2026 proxy describes the plan amendment and its potential dilution as a proposal; subsequent approval, issuance and vesting are not established.
  • February 19, March 17 and August 4, 2026 are filing dates, not retrieval dates. The latest supplied operating period ends June 30, 2026.

Financial indicators to test against the thesis

Calculated from annual filings. Missing data remains unavailable. Detailed financial charts remain in the other topics.

Financial indicators to test against the thesis
PeriodGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
202119.7%9.3%10.6%0.2%
202216.8%7.9%8.7%-8.8%
202319.0%9.1%9.1%5.8%
202420.7%——-3.1%
202519.6%——6.0%

Pricing power44

  • Pricing outcomes

    Disclosed pass-through generally produces proportional sales and cost changes, supporting input-price recovery in both directions. This is mixed pricing evidence: incomplete recovery is possible and discretionary base-price realization is undisclosed.

  • Customer demand

    High retention is explicitly reported and shipment growth provides indirect support for repeat demand. No quantified renewals or evidence of retention following discretionary price increases is supplied.

  • Margin resilience

    Majority-volume pass-through and growing operating earnings support earnings protection. Timing gaps and unrecovered amounts limit protection; the evidence does not isolate pricing's contribution or establish sustained margin preservation.

  • Pricing freedom

    Fixed, floating and pass-through aluminum terms link prices to contractual input formulas. These provide recovery mechanisms but limited demonstrated unilateral pricing discretion; freedom over conversion charges is undisclosed.

Management63

  • Capital discipline

    Reported 2025 free cash flow of $956 million accompanied $1.54 billion of shareholder returns. First-half 2026 operating cash use improved to $169 million from $333 million, while capex rose to $302 million and repurchases fell sharply. Debt obligations were met. These show mixed financing and allocation evidence; a half-year cash deficit alone does not establish persistent indiscipline.

  • Incentive alignment

    Actual incentive metrics link payouts to operating cash flow and shipped volume; downward adjustments demonstrate application. Equity incentives provide further alignment, but adjusted metrics, service-based awards and missing beneficial ownership limit confidence. Proposed 12% dilution is a prospective concern, not realized issuance.

  • Execution

    Reported 2025 shipment growth of 4.1%, operating earnings growth of 5.7%, EPS growth of 12% and improved quality provide concrete evidence of delivery. This assesses the management team from operating outcomes, not CEO reputation; the performance attribution and quality comparison remain issuer-reported.

  • Governance

    An independent chairman, an independent compensation committee and CEO pay decisions made without the CEO present establish substantive oversight arrangements. Management also reported effective disclosure controls. These support strong governance practices, without establishing exceptional long-term effectiveness.

Sources and methodology

Current publication · Updated 18/10/2026 · Version 4

AI interpretation based on checked source excerpts. Issuer assertions and evidence limitations remain explicit.

Policy quality-scores-2: six equally weighted categories. The overall score requires full coverage. Missing inputs are not zero. Qualitative grades are sourced interpretations, not probabilities. 6/6 · 18/10/2026

Moat50

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

structural advantage · 2/4 · Long-term supply contracts and reported high retention support a modest incumbent advantage. Neither technical switching barriers nor a relative cost advantage is demonstrated.

durability · 2/4 · Established relationships and supply commitments support persistence, but undisclosed contract terms and significant substitute competition limit demonstrated durability.

customer dependency · 2/4 · Reported retention and shipment growth indicate repeat demand, assessed partly from indirect operating evidence. Large customers and absent switching-cost disclosures prevent a stronger dependency conclusion.

erosion resilience · 2/4 · 2025 volume and operating earnings growth support resilience despite some experienced demand reductions. Substitutes and incomplete cost recovery remain vulnerabilities; possible competitive risks are not treated as realized losses.

Pricing power44

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

realized pricing · 2/4 · Disclosed pass-through generally produces proportional sales and cost changes, supporting input-price recovery in both directions. This is mixed pricing evidence: incomplete recovery is possible and discretionary base-price realization is undisclosed.

retention · 2/4 · High retention is explicitly reported and shipment growth provides indirect support for repeat demand. No quantified renewals or evidence of retention following discretionary price increases is supplied.

margin resilience · 2/4 · Majority-volume pass-through and growing operating earnings support earnings protection. Timing gaps and unrecovered amounts limit protection; the evidence does not isolate pricing's contribution or establish sustained margin preservation.

contractual freedom · 1/4 · Fixed, floating and pass-through aluminum terms link prices to contractual input formulas. These provide recovery mechanisms but limited demonstrated unilateral pricing discretion; freedom over conversion charges is undisclosed.

Predictability69

Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
50.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
12.09
Positive FCF years (%)
60.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
5.60

Financial strength20

Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

debtFcfGrade
0.00
netDebtEbitGrade
20.60
interestCoverageGrade
30.79
currentRatioGrade
29.13
Debt / FCF (x)
8.90
Net debt / operating income (x)
3.97
Current ratio (x)
1.11

Capital allocation66

Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year pre-tax operating return (%)
10.50
3-year average dilution (%)
-4.57
3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
0.33
cashConversionGrade
21.93

Management63

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

capital discipline · 2/4 · Reported 2025 free cash flow of $956 million accompanied $1.54 billion of shareholder returns. First-half 2026 operating cash use improved to $169 million from $333 million, while capex rose to $302 million and repurchases fell sharply. Debt obligations were met. These show mixed financing and allocation evidence; a half-year cash deficit alone does not establish persistent indiscipline.

incentive alignment · 2/4 · Actual incentive metrics link payouts to operating cash flow and shipped volume; downward adjustments demonstrate application. Equity incentives provide further alignment, but adjusted metrics, service-based awards and missing beneficial ownership limit confidence. Proposed 12% dilution is a prospective concern, not realized issuance.

execution · 3/4 · Reported 2025 shipment growth of 4.1%, operating earnings growth of 5.7%, EPS growth of 12% and improved quality provide concrete evidence of delivery. This assesses the management team from operating outcomes, not CEO reputation; the performance attribution and quality comparison remain issuer-reported.

governance · 3/4 · An independent chairman, an independent compensation committee and CEO pay decisions made without the CEO present establish substantive oversight arrangements. Management also reported effective disclosure controls. These support strong governance practices, without establishing exceptional long-term effectiveness.

Evidence

​ We sell our aluminum packaging products mainly to large, multinational beverage, personal care and household products companies with which we have developed long-term relationships.

MD&A / Business Overview and Industry Trends / customer relationships · Filed 04/08/2026

This is evidenced by our high customer retention and our large number of long-term supply contracts.

MD&A / Business Overview and Industry Trends / retention and supply contracts · Filed 04/08/2026

We outperformed the market by growing our global aluminum packaging shipments by 4.1% compared to 2024, achieving a record level of adjusted free cash flow, and returning $1.54 billion to shareholders.

Proxy introductory letter / 2025 shipments and shareholder returns · Filed 17/03/2026

We mitigate our exposure to the changes in the costs of aluminum through the inclusion of provisions in contracts covering the majority of our volume to pass-through aluminum price changes, as well as through the use of derivative instruments.

MD&A / Business Overview and Industry Trends / majority-volume aluminum pass-through · Filed 04/08/2026

Our current or potential competitors may offer products at a lower price or products that are deemed superior to ours.

Risk Factors / competing product price and quality · Filed 19/02/2026

​ Our aluminum packaging products are subject to significant competition from substitute products, particularly plastic carbonated soft drink bottles made from PET, single serve and returnable beer bottles and other beverage containers made of glass, cardboard or other materials.

Risk Factors / substitute packaging competition · Filed 19/02/2026

While we have a diversified customer base, we sell a significant portion of our packaging products to major companies and brands, as well as to numerous regional customers.

MD&A / Business Overview and Industry Trends / major customer exposure · Filed 04/08/2026

The pass-through provisions generally result in proportional increases or decreases in sales and costs with a reduced impact, on net earnings; however, there may be timing differences of when the costs are passed through and amounts that are not fully passed through.

MD&A / Business Overview and Industry Trends / pass-through effects and limitations · Filed 04/08/2026

First, the company enters into container sales contracts that include aluminum-based pricing terms which generally reflect the same price fluctuations under commercial purchase contracts for aluminum sheet.

Financial Instruments and Risk Management / aluminum-based sales pricing · Filed 04/08/2026

The terms include fixed, floating or pass-through aluminum component pricing.

Financial Instruments and Risk Management / fixed, floating and pass-through terms · Filed 04/08/2026

​ Financial Results ■ Achieved Volume Growth of +4.1% versus prior year and Operating Earnings of $1,554m, (+5.7% from prior year).

Executive Compensation / 2025 financial results / volume and operating earnings · Filed 17/03/2026

​ ■ Achieved $956m of Free Cash Flow and EPS of $3.57 (+12% over prior year).

Executive Compensation / 2025 financial results / free cash flow and EPS · Filed 17/03/2026

​ 3 Table of Contents BALL CORPORATION UNAUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Six Months Ended June 30, ($ in millions) ​ ​ ​ 2026 ​ ​ ​ 2025 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Cash Flows from Operating Activities ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Net earnings ​ $ 428 ​ $ 394 Adjustments to reconcile net earnings to cash provided by (used in) operating activities: ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Depreciation and amortization ​ ​ 324 ​ ​ 305 Business consolidation and other activities ​ ​ 33 ​ ​ 25 Deferred tax provision (benefit) ​ ​ 24 ​ ​ (43) Loss on Aerospace disposal ​ ​ — ​ ​ 3 Pension contributions ​ ​ (15) ​ ​ (15) Other, net ​ ​ 49 ​ ​ (164) Changes in working capital components, net of acquisitions and dispositions ​ ​ (1,012) ​ ​ (838) Cash provided by (used in) operating activities ​ ​ (169) ​ ​ (333) ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Cash Flows from Investing Activities ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Capital expenditures ​ ​ (302) ​ ​ (177) Business acquisitions, net of cash acquired ​ ​ (76) ​ ​ (158) Business dispositions, net of cash sold ​ ​ — ​ ​ 4 Derivative settlements ​ ​ (11) ​ ​ (66) Other, net ​ ​ (48) ​ ​ 6 Cash provided by (used in) investing activities ​ ​ (437) ​ ​ (391) ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Cash Flows from Financing Activities ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Long-term borrowings ​ ​ 1,505 ​ ​ 2,930 Repayments of long-term borrowings ​ ​ (1,281) ​ ​ (1,624) Net change in short-term borrowings ​ ​ (145) ​ ​ (76) Acquisitions of treasury stock ​ ​ (115) ​ ​ (1,022) Common stock dividends ​ ​ (107) ​ ​ (112) Other, net ​ ​ 17 ​ ​ (8) Cash provided by (used in) financing activities ​ ​ (126) ​ ​ 88 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Effect of exchange rate changes on cash ​ ​ 12 ​ ​ 23 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Change in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash ​ ​ (720) ​ ​ (613) Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash - beginning of period ​ ​ 1,221 ​ ​ 931 Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash - end of period ​ $ 501 ​ $ 318 ​ See accompanying notes to the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements.

Unaudited condensed consolidated cash flows / six months ended June 30, 2026 and 2025 · Filed 04/08/2026

The company was in compliance with the leverage ratio requirement at June 30, 2026, and for all prior periods presented, and has met all debt payment obligations.

Note 15 / debt covenant compliance and payment obligations · Filed 04/08/2026

​ Performance measure ​ ​ Threshold (25% Payout) ​ ​ Target (100% payout) ​ ​ Maximum (200% payout) ​ ​ Actual ​ ​ Payout % ​ ​ Adjusted Operating Cash Flow (75%) ​ ​ ​ $ 1,563m ​ ​ ​ ​ $ 1,699m ​ ​ ​ ≥$1,835m ​ ​ ​ ​ 1,765m ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 148% ​ ​ ​ Unit Volume Growth (25%) ​ ​ ​ ​ 107.5m ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 109.6m ​ ​ ​ ≥111.8m ​ ​ ​ ​ 110.8m ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 154% ​ ​ ​ Overall Business Performance Factor ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 150% ​ ​ ​ (1) The definition of Adjusted Operating Cash Flow (OCF) for STI purposes, as approved by the HR Committee, is Comparable EBITDA (as reported) plus changes in working capital (Trade Accounts Receivable, Trade Accounts Payable and Inventory).

Executive Compensation / 2025 short-term incentive metrics and actual achievement · Filed 17/03/2026

Within the HR Committee’s approved framework and the terms of the equity plan rules, the Committee has negatively adjusted the 2025 STI OCF achievement by a total of $394m/ This reflected the impact of removing acquisitions and adding back dispositions, accounting adjustments for CAPEX related payables, neutralizing the impact of currency fluctuations, factoring activity outside an agreed level and other Committee approved adjustments.

Executive Compensation / downward adjustment to incentive cash-flow achievement · Filed 17/03/2026

The vesting outcome can be increased or decreased based on the performance of two Modifier Measures (Sustainability and Relative TSR) ​ ​ Ties to our management- as-owners philosophy and rewards performance contributing to absolute EVA dollar growth and earnings per-share growth, while reinforcing disciplined execution through sustainability and safety performance 50% weighting in LTI program for NEOs ​ ​ 38 ​ ​ Stock Options (options) ​ ​ Designed to promote stock ownership and long-term performance ​ ​ Stock price appreciation ​ ​ Ties to our management- as-owners philosophy and rewards performance contributing to shareholder value through absolute stock price growth 25% weighting in LTI program for NEOs ​ ​ 39 ​ ​ Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) ​ ​ Designed to promote stock ownership and retention, with awards vesting after 3 years subject to continued employment ​ ​ Value based on stock price ​ ​ Ties to our management- as-owners philosophy 25% weighting in LTI program for NEOs ​ ​ 39 ​ ​ OTHER ONE-TIME INCENTIVES ​ ​ One-time Restricted Stock Units (“RSUs”) ​ ​ Designed to promote stock ownership, provide a recruitment, retention or performance-based incentive where appropriate and incentivize the creation of shareholder value ​ ​ Value based on stock price or bespoke performance conditions ​ ​ Granted from time-to- time and tied to our management-as-owners philosophy, generally in connection with the promotion or recruitment of individuals to facilitate ownership and retention or to incentivize a specific performance outcome ​ ​ 40 ​ ​ Deposit Share Program (“DSP”) ​ ​ Designed to promote financial investment in Ball, promote stock ownership and incentivize the creation of shareholder value ​ ​ Value based on stock price ​ ​ Granted from time-to-time (last offered in 2021) and tied to our management-as-owners philosophy, offering RSUs in exchange for the recipient voluntarily and newly investing in and holding shares of Ball stock ​ ​ 40 ​ 30 | WWW.BALL.COM/INVESTORS TABLE OF CONTENTS​​ EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION​ ​ ROLE OF THE HUMAN RESOURCES COMMITTEE AND EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION CONSULTANT The HR Committee oversees the design of the executive compensation program and determines the compensation of our executive officers.

Executive Compensation / long-term incentive structure and vesting conditions · Filed 17/03/2026

TAYLOR II ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ■ Independent Director since 1999 ​ ■Chairman of the Board since 2025 ■ Age 65 ​ COMMITTEES ■ Human Resources ​ ■Nominating/Corporate Governance CAREER HIGHLIGHT Mr.

Board and Corporate Governance / independent chairman · Filed 17/03/2026

The HR Committee is composed solely of nonmanagement directors, all of whom are independent.

Executive Compensation / independent Human Resources Committee · Filed 17/03/2026

The HR Committee sets the CEO’s target total compensation package during an executive session without the CEO present.

Executive Compensation / CEO compensation determination · Filed 17/03/2026

The potential dilution under the 2026 Plan Amendment would be 12%, which the Company believes is reasonable for our industry.

Proposed 2026 Plan Amendment / potential dilution · Filed 17/03/2026

32 Table of Contents Item 4. CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES ​ Our chief executive officer and chief financial officer participated in management’s evaluation of our disclosure controls and procedures, as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as of the end of the period covered by this report and concluded that our controls and procedures were effective.

Item 4 / management evaluation of disclosure controls · Filed 04/08/2026

​ ■ Improved quality performance, with non-conformance below both target and prior year.

Executive Compensation / operational excellence / quality performance · Filed 17/03/2026

The global economic environment has resulted in reductions in demand for our products in some instances, which, in turn, could increase these competitive pressures.

Risk Factors / experienced demand reductions in some instances · Filed 19/02/2026

Publication history

Publication history
VersionUpdatedCompetitive advantage
418/10/2026narrow
318/10/2026narrow
218/10/2026narrow
118/10/2026Unavailable

Sources

Research methodology and limitations · What is an economic moat?