Baxter International

Historically, Baxter’s large consumables base drove steady cash generation. The last two years added unusual variability: a multi‑quarter hurricane recovery and infusion‑pump quality actions that affected rollout pacing and installations, plus the structural shift from the Vantive sale.

Management now targets mid‑single‑digit operational sales growth, but 2025 guidance was reduced mid‑year and adjusted EPS narrowed as IV demand recovery lagged. TTM free cash flow from continuing operations is roughly $293 million, and nine‑month 2025 FCF was slightly negative, highlighting ongoing normalization risk.

While recurring revenue remains high, near‑term forecasting error bars are wider than we prefer.