Berkshire Hathaway

Predictability is stronger than most conglomerates due to diversification and recurring regulated earnings, but it is not at the level of top-tier tollbooth franchises because insurance underwriting and investment marks can create volatility.

Still, Berkshire’s operating earnings have trended higher, with TTM operating profit of about 48.8 billion dollars through Q3 2025 and a strong Q3 print of 13.5 billion dollars. BNSF volumes and revenue are steady, and utility returns are regulated.

The key wildcard for near-term predictability is the interest rate path, because the company’s very large Treasury bill position materially boosts reported operating earnings at today’s yields and will decline if rates fall. Barron’s recently estimated several billion dollars of annual interest income at risk if the Fed cuts aggressively.

We factor this into our score. Geographic and sector diversification mitigate single-country or single-product risk.