BlackRock

BlackRock’s revenue base is largely recurring and diversified across ETFs, index, active, cash management, private markets, and technology. Organic base-fee growth has been robust and broad-based in 2025; however, AUM-driven revenues remain correlated with market levels, which adds cyclicality.

The push into private credit and infrastructure introduces longer-dated capital and performance-fee optionality, while technology services provide subscription-like stability. Q3 2025 saw 205 billion dollars of net inflows and 25 percent revenue growth year over year, illustrating resilient demand and diversification.

We balance these positives against market beta sensitivity and potential performance-fee lumpiness, assigning a high but not perfect predictability score.