Booking Holdings

Booking’s revenue and free cash flow growth have been quite reliable since the pandemic, making it relatively predictable. Global travel demand tends to grow with economic expansion and is partially recession-resistant in the long term (people generally travel for work and leisure).

Indeed, Booking reported record annual room nights in 2024 and 9% CAGR in bookings over the past decade). Its business is not subscription-based, but users planning travel often book multiple times per year, and travelers tend to reuse the same trusted platforms.

The company’s international diversification (the majority of revenue is from outside the US) reduces country-specific risk. That said, travel can be cyclical: downturns like COVID-19 saw massive declines in bookings, and near-term factors (geopolitics, economic slowdowns) could temporarily slow growth.

Booking also issues earnings guidance acknowledging some growth headwinds (e.g. normalizing U.S. leisure travel). Overall, the long-term secular trend (more online travel bookings, rising incomes) and the tollbooth-like model yield fairly steady growth. We score predictability high for secular growth, tempered by cyclicality.