Camden Property Trust

Camden’s moat is primarily cost of capital and operating scale in its chosen markets, supported by an A-/A3/A- unsecured rating stack and a long development/operating track record.

It does not benefit from network effects and resident switching costs are low, but it does enjoy an efficient-scale advantage in submarkets where permitting, land banking, and relationships deter smaller entrants. Brand and service reputation are decent but not decisive.

Risks to moat durability include Sun Belt supply cycles and insurance/property tax inflation.

Component view: cost advantage 70/100 (A- credit, low funding costs), efficient scale 70/100 (local clusters across TX/FL/NC/AZ and DC), intangible brand 55/100, switching costs 30/100, network effects 10/100. Weighted overall ≈ 68. Key evidence includes credit standing, leverage, and unencumbered asset base.

Recent leasing metrics show limited pricing power: in 3Q25 effective new leases were −2.5% and blended effective growth only +0.6%, reflecting heavy 2024–2025 deliveries in many Sun Belt metros. Renewal increases remain positive in the low single digits, indicating some embedded pricing on the existing base.

Forecasts call for declining deliveries into 2026–2027, which should restore some rent momentum, but we model a gradual rebuild rather than a snapback. Camden’s product is Class A with lifestyle amenities, yet its ability to push rents meaningfully is cyclical. We score pricing power at 55 for now with upside if supply normalizes on schedule.

Apartments are inherently recurring with diversified tenancy and short lease terms that adjust to inflation and demand. Camden’s occupancy has held near 95–96%, and TTM Core FFO per share is ~6.85 with Core AFFO ~5.9, signaling steady cash conversion. Geographic and asset diversification reduce exposure to any single regulatory regime.

The main sources of variability are supply surges, local taxes/insurance, and the macro job market. On balance we view revenue/FCF visibility as above average for real assets with moderate cyclicality.

Camden’s balance sheet is a clear strength. Net debt to annualized Adjusted EBITDAre is ~4.2x with interest coverage around 6.5x. Debt is 74% fixed rate with a ~4.0% weighted average cost and 5.2‑year weighted average maturity.

Unencumbered asset coverage is ~3.7x of unsecured debt, and quarter‑end liquidity was ~${796} million (cash plus revolver/commercial paper availability). Near‑term maturities are manageable, with 2026 the first notable maturity year. These metrics support resilience and optionality through the current cycle.

Management prioritizes internally funded development with measured pipeline risk and opportunistic recycling. In 2025 YTD the company acquired three newer communities, sold older assets in TX, and repurchased $50 million of stock while maintaining a sustainable dividend (63% FFO payout).

Remaining development to fund is modest relative to liquidity, and leverage has been kept conservative. We see a solid track record, though we remain mindful of development timing risk and share repurchases being small relative to potential NAV discounts.

Founder‑CEO Ric Campo and long‑tenured leadership have navigated multiple cycles, with April 2024 succession steps elevating Alex Jessett to President while retaining CFO duties, and D. Keith Oden continuing as Executive Vice Chairman.

Camden’s culture has been repeatedly recognized on Fortune’s Best Companies to Work For list, which tends to correlate with stable on‑site operations. A caveat is the DOJ RealPage case naming Camden, which the company disputes. We balance long, credible execution against legal overhang and some property‑level service complaints in urban assets.