Centene Corporation

Revenue is largely recurring and membership-based, which should favor predictability, but the business is exposed to policy cycles (Medicaid redeterminations) and technical factors (risk adjustment, RADV), leading to periodic step-changes in margins and cash timing.

The 2025 Marketplace morbidity surprise and goodwill impairment highlight these risks, despite otherwise steady multi-year revenue growth to $163.1 billion in 2024 and a 28.6 million member base. Medicaid acuity post-redeterminations and Marketplace dynamics reduce earnings visibility vs. toll-like franchises.