CME Group

Revenue and cash flow at CME are highly predictable over the long term. All exchange revenues are transaction-based, so growth roughly tracks global economic activity and volatility – good long-term secular drivers. In recent years CME’s revenues grew ~10% annualized (2022 to 2024) with net income ~9% CAGR.

This was achieved even prior to the recent volatility spike, reflecting underlying growth. While volume fluctuates with market events, CME’s business model is like a tollbooth: customers need to hedge interest rates, equities, FX etc, and will keep trading.

CME also has recurring market-data subscriptions and growing OTC/spot arm, diversifying income. Because of the stable growth trend and visibility, predictability is scored high.