Constellation Energy

Positives: High nuclear fleet availability, long asset lives, decade‑long PTC tail, and multi‑year PPAs all support medium‑term visibility. The pending Calpine deal further diversifies geography and fuels while enhancing the retail platform’s ability to match supply and load.

Negatives: Merchant exposure to energy and capacity prices persists, and 2025 shows lower recognized nuclear PTC versus 2024 as market prices rose, with state program pass‑throughs offsetting benefits. Working capital, collateral and receivables‑program changes also add near‑term cash flow noise.

Regulatory timing around Crane (Three Mile Island) and broader licensing remains a schedule risk. Net, we view earnings and cash flow as moderately predictable, with improved downside protection relative to pre‑IRA but still below classic toll‑booth businesses.