Dollar Tree

Positives: decisive exit from the low-return Family Dollar business (closed July 5, 2025), heavy opportunistic share repurchases (~15.0 million shares repurchased YTD through Q3 FY2025 with $2.0 billion authorization remaining), and disciplined tuck-in real estate acquisitions of 170 former 99 Cents Only leases and IP to accelerate growth in priority Western markets.

The capex envelope ($1.2–$1.3 billion FY2024–FY2025) is elevated but largely growth- and moat-accretive (multi-price conversions, DC ramp in Ocala and Odessa, and a rebuilt Marietta DC by 2027). Offsetting: the 2015 Family Dollar acquisition was a major misstep; although fully remedied via divestiture, it tempers our view.

No dividend, which we prefer given reinvestment and buyback opportunities.