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eBay Inc.

EBAY
NASDAQ
$85.03

How predictable is eBay's business?

The model is transaction‑based but diversified across geographies and categories, with ad revenue adding a quasi‑recurring layer tied to marketplace traffic. 2025 delivered $11.1 billion revenue, $79.6 billion GMV, 20.5 percent GAAP operating margin and $1.5 billion free cash flow; active buyers were stable to slightly up at 135 million.

Q1 2026 guidance implies continued double‑digit FX‑neutral growth in revenue and GMV. Risks to predictability include macro sensitivity in discretionary categories, competitive share shifts, and evolving search/ad ecosystems. Overall growth now appears mid‑single‑digit with reasonable visibility, supported by focus categories and retail media.