Expedia Group

Intangible assets: Well known consumer brands and the leading US vacation‑rental brand within the group provide awareness and direct traffic, though brand spend is rising and loyalty design changes can trigger backlash. Scale in first‑party data and merchandising underpins ad yield. We score 65 for intangibles.

Switching costs: Low for travelers, moderate for suppliers, and higher for B2B partners integrated via APIs, white‑label storefronts, and TAAP. Once embedded, migrations are costly and risky for partners. Score 70. Network effects: More supply attracts more demand and vice versa, amplified by advertising marketplaces and media solutions.

Scale is meaningful but not unique relative to the largest global peers. Score 65. Cost advantages: Marketing, payments, and service operations benefit from scale, but auction‑based traffic and metasearch reduce durable cost edges.

Score 60. Efficient scale: In B2B distribution and ad networks, capacity and relationships deter small entrants, though large tech platforms remain threats. Score 55. Moat risks: Dependence on search engines, supplier direct channels, and emerging AI assistants can compress margins and traffic.

Regulatory friction in short‑term rentals adds volatility. Overall moat 68.

Take rates are constrained by competitive dynamics and supplier bargaining power. Total revenue margin held roughly flat at 12.3 percent in 2025, suggesting limited ability to push commissions materially. Advertising and B2B provide higher margin mix and selective pricing leverage. Net: moderate pricing power with ad growth as the key lever.

Travel demand is cyclical and seasonally skewed, yet the group now blends a steadier B2B distribution business with scaled consumer brands and an 8 percent 2025 revenue increase. 2026 guidance calls for mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit growth and EBITDA margin expansion, which, combined with expanding ad revenue, supports moderate predictability.

Offsets include macro shocks, search algorithm changes, and evolving short‑term rental regulation in the EU from May 2026.

The company ended 2025 with 5.7 billion in unrestricted cash and short‑term investments and an undrawn 2.5 billion revolver. Total debt was about 6.16 billion with current maturities of 1.69 billion, including a 0 percent convertible due February 2026 that management elected to cash‑settle.

Net debt is modest relative to 2025 free cash flow of 3.11 billion, and operating income rose 42 percent year over year. Overall balance sheet flexibility is solid for a cyclical.

Management has shifted from transformation spending to returns and targeted reinvestment.

In 2025 it repurchased 9.0 million shares for 1.66 billion at an average price of 184.76 and reinstated a quarterly dividend, later increasing it to 0.48 per share for March 2026. Capital intensity remains focused on software and product, with 770 million of capex in 2025, supporting platform capabilities and ad monetization.

SBC trended down in 2025. Repurchases near intrinsic value and balanced with deleveraging and dividends indicate improving discipline.

Ariane Gorin, long‑time leader of the B2B unit, became CEO in May 2024 and has leaned into B2B, product quality, and advertising. Scott Schenkel was appointed CFO in February 2025, bringing deep e‑commerce finance experience. Barry Diller retains about 32 percent voting power via Class B shares, aligning influence but concentrating control.

Execution in 2024 to 2025 improved margins and cash generation, but customer experience at Vrbo and search traffic dependencies remain cultural and operational tests.