Lockheed Martin

Components and weights: Switching costs 25% (score 95). Platforms like F‑35, PAC‑3/THAAD, Sikorsky Black Hawk/CH‑53K and space assets embed decades‑long sustainment, training, spares and sovereign certification, making migration prohibitively risky and costly. Intangibles 20% (85).

Classified know‑how, mission integration credentials, safety culture and export certifications are difficult to replicate; Space programs (Next‑Gen OPIR) and NGI add to hard‑to‑copy capabilities. Efficient scale 30% (95).

US large‑prime field is structurally limited; many markets (5th‑gen fighters, strategic missile defense, national‑security space) support few credible primes, discouraging entrants and benefiting incumbents. Backlog covers >2.5 years of sales. Cost advantages 15% (75).

Scale in supply chain, long‑run learning curves and multi‑year buys (e.g., PAC‑3 MSE) confer unit‑cost benefits, though inflation and supplier constraints can erode these. Network effects 10% (25). Limited direct network effects; some ecosystem learning and interoperability benefits exist but are secondary to switching costs and scale.

Overall weighted score ≈ 85. Key erosion paths: (1) execution slippages (TR‑3 acceptance cadence) that delay cash and dent customer trust; (2) budget/prioritization changes (e.g., service mix or international orders such as order sizing adjustments); (3) technological shifts toward uncrewed or new air dominance architectures that diminish F‑35’s relative centrality over time.