Mondelez International

The business sells small-ticket, high-frequency indulgences with recurring demand and broad geographic diversity. Revenue has compounded from 26.6 billion dollars in 2020 to 36.4 billion in 2024, aided by organic growth and bolt-on deals.

Cash generation is typically steady, but 2025 FCF is temporarily depressed by commodity and working-capital dynamics: FY24 FCF was about 3.5 billion, while YTD FCF through Q3 2025 was about 1.2 billion with a TTM near 2.2 billion. Management’s 2025 guidance was cut given cocoa, then modestly trimmed again in Q3, which we view as cyclical.

We also note exposure to FX and select country risks. Overall, predictability is high for a discretionary-staples category, albeit not visa-level tollbooth quality.