Moody's Corporation

Group revenue and FCF are predictable over multi‑year windows but show intra‑cycle variability tied to capital markets. The analytics segment (ARR ~$3.4 billion; ~96% recurring) provides ballast while ratings recovers with issuance regimes.

Through Q3 2025, revenue momentum led to a guidance raise; however, earlier in April management narrowed/lowered the outlook on volatility, illustrating cyclical sensitivity. We view mid‑teens EPS/FCF compounding as achievable over a cycle, driven by secular trends in private credit, compliance/KYC, and climate/insurance analytics.

Concentration risk to the U.S. is moderate but diversified with sizable EMEA exposure. Regulatory shifts remain a tail risk.