MSCI Inc.

MSCI’s business model is highly predictable. Roughly 80-90% of revenues come from recurring sources (fixed subscriptions or percent-of-AUM licensing), as shown in its segment disclosures.

This recurring structure, along with broad client diversification (across 7,100+ accounts globally) and wide geographic reach, leads to stable cash flows and modest volatility. Demand is underpinned by long-term secular trends (passive investing, ESG adoption, quant analytics), so growth is steady (revenue 12-13% in 2024).

Even in market downturns, clients generally maintain their risk and data budgets. The company’s track record of consistent double-digit growth in index and analytics fees (9-10%+ in recent quarters)) supports this.

MSCI’s risk profile is low: it is not highly cyclical commodity or consumer business, and it faces no single-country concentration issues. One caution is that asset-based fees can fluctuate with markets (ETFs ‘fat-tail’ inflows/outflows), but overall revenue guidance is smooth.

In sum, MSCI is a textbook tollbooth provider with highly predictable, subscription-driven revenue.