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Netflix

NFLX
NASDAQ
$88.89

How predictable is Netflix's business?

The model is now a subscription core with a growing ad annuity layered on top. 2024 revenue reached 39.0 billion dollars with 27 percent operating margin.

In the Q3 2025 shareholder letter, management guided to about 45.1 billion dollars of 2025 revenue and 29 percent operating margin, despite a Q3 one-off Brazil tax expense that temporarily reduced the quarterly margin. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow through Q3 2025 was about 8.97 billion dollars.

While title-by-title performance varies, the recurring nature of subscriptions, a diversified global base, and scale in marketing drive improving predictability compared with past years.

The company also announced it would stop detailing quarterly subscriber counts starting in 2025 to shift investor focus to revenue and margin, which aligns with a maturing, cash-generative profile. Ad reach metrics have accelerated, supporting a more recurring ad business as targeting and measurement mature.

Risks include foreign exchange volatility, content timing, and macro sensitivity in advertising.