Phillips 66

PSX’s cash generation has meaningful cyclicality. 2022–2023 were very strong, 2024 was weak, and 2025 improved into Q2–Q3 with higher capture and record midstream throughput.

The company’s midstream growth and CPChem expansions should raise the floor on earnings from 2026–2027, but macro variables (crack spreads, NGL/polyethylene cycles, RFS policy) will still swing results.

Management now discloses CFO ex‑working capital, which helps normalize cash‑flow assessment, but consolidated variability remains above our ideal for long‑term predictability.