Progressive Corporation

True pricing power in personal auto is constrained by rate regulation, but Progressive’s ability to reprice rapidly by state and segment, to incorporate telematics data, and to manage new business flow grants effective pricing power over the cycle. 2024’s 88.6 combined ratio in Personal Lines and 89.4 in Commercial Lines, followed by an 89.5 total combined ratio in 3Q25, reflect that ability.

Rate relief and elasticity were evident in 2024–2025 policy growth and improved margins.

Offsetting considerations: Florida’s profit‑return statute required recording an estimated ~$950M policyholder credit in September 2025, highlighting regulatory headwinds that can claw back profits; California restricts UBI usage; and elevated cat losses can compress margins despite rate actions.

We see latent pricing power via UBI adoption, bundling, and continued shift to digital/direct, but we haircut the score to reflect regulatory friction and competitive responses.