no

ServiceNow

NOW
NYSE
$141.86
88
Good

An AI workflow tollbooth with elite retention and rising cash generation

Service quality, suite breadth, and deep platform integration have made this business the de facto operating system for enterprise workflows.

Subscription revenue is over 96 percent of total, renewal rates have held at roughly 98 percent for years, and contracted backlog continues to compound, providing rare visibility for a software franchise of this scale.

Recent quarters reaffirm that positioning: Q2 2025 subscription revenue grew 22.5 percent with cRPO up 24.5 percent, while free cash flow for the last four reported quarters totals about 3.88 billion dollars at a 32 percent margin.

The moat centers on switching costs and process adjacency: once multiple departments run on the unified platform, migration risk and retraining costs become prohibitive, enabling consistent upsell into adjacent workflows and now AI agents.

Management is leaning into agentic AI via Pro Plus and Enterprise Plus SKUs and the pending Moveworks acquisition, which expands the front‑end assistant and enterprise search layer.

Balance sheet strength is excellent with roughly 9.9 billion dollars in cash and investments against 1.5 billion dollars of 2030 notes, and share repurchases are primarily used to offset stock‑based compensation. The franchise is exceptional.

Our discipline is on price: using TTM free cash flow per share of about 18.5 dollars and a quality premium multiple of 35x, our base‑case fair value is roughly 130 dollars per share (650 pre-split), with a preferred accumulation zone closer to 30x FCF.

published on October 20, 2025 (81 days ago)

Does ServiceNow have a strong competitive moat?

88
Good

Primary advantages are switching costs and process breadth. Customers often start in ITSM and expand into IT operations, security, risk, HR, customer workflows, creator tools, and industry solutions on one data model.

Once multiple workflows are orchestrated end‑to‑end, alternatives face high implementation risk, complex retraining, and loss of cross‑department automation. Renewal has held near 98 percent for several years and large‑ACV cohorts keep growing, evidencing stickiness and expansion.

Ecosystem partners and a large developer community add a softer network effect. Risks to the moat include hyperscaler bundling, adjacent suite encroachment from Microsoft, Salesforce, and Atlassian, and potential commoditization of discrete AI features. Overall moat durability is high given installed complexity and breadth.

Does ServiceNow have pricing power in its industry?

80
Good

Pricing leverage stems from mission‑critical positioning and expansion into higher value SKUs. Subscription gross margins around 80 to 85 percent and sustained 20 percent‑plus subscription growth indicate healthy willingness to pay.

The company is packaging genAI and agentic capabilities into Pro Plus and Enterprise Plus, and expects to monetize AI usage more directly over time. The pivot to include consumption elements for AI and data introduces some variability near term but should increase long‑run monetization per workflow as usage grows.

The counterforce is competitive bundling and procurement scrutiny at scale, especially in front‑office adjacencies and public sector, which can moderate list price increases. Net, pricing power is strong but not unbounded.

How predictable is ServiceNow's business?

92
Excellent

Revenue is predominantly subscription and recognized ratably, with cRPO and RPO rising faster than revenue, signaling forward visibility. Q2 2025 reported subscription revenue up 22.5 percent, cRPO up 24.5 percent, and RPO up 29 percent.

TTM free cash flow of about 3.88 billion dollars on roughly 12.1 billion dollars of revenue yields a 32 percent margin, consistent with multi‑year expansion. Cohort behavior shows durable upsell as customers add adjacent workflows and AI features. While the company flagged timing headwinds in U.S.

Federal renewals for Q3 2025, it also noted those cohorts are expected to renew in Q4. Currency and macro cycles can affect near‑term linearity, but the long‑term trajectory remains steady.

Is ServiceNow financially strong?

95
Excellent

Balance sheet quality is excellent with about 9.9 billion dollars of cash, cash equivalents, and investments versus 1.5 billion dollars of 1.40 percent 2030 senior notes. Core operating cash flow is robust and capex is manageable for a company investing in platform scale, data, and AI.

Interest coverage is substantial, and the business has demonstrated positive operating cash flow for more than a decade. This allows continued R&D, tuck‑in M&A, and buybacks while preserving resilience in downturns.

How effective is ServiceNow's capital allocation strategy?

75
Good

Reinvestment into product and platform is the first priority, with R&D and platform build‑out generating high returns. Stock‑based compensation remains material at roughly 1.75 billion dollars in 2024 and is a key watch item; repurchases are framed to offset dilution rather than shrink the share count.

The board expanded buyback authorization by 3.0 billion dollars in January 2025 and the company repurchased 381 thousand shares for 361 million dollars in Q2 2025, leaving about 2.6 billion dollars authorized at that time. M&A has generally been targeted.

The pending 2.85 billion dollar Moveworks acquisition fits the agentic AI thesis and extends the front‑end assistant and enterprise search layer, though it increases execution risk and raises the bar for synergy capture.

Does ServiceNow have high-quality management?

85
Good

Leadership combines an enterprise‑go‑to‑market veteran CEO with a product and engineering leader joining from Google Cloud, while the founder remains on the board. Execution on beats‑and‑raises, disciplined go‑to‑market, and ambitious product cadence in AI agents, orchestration, and governance support confidence.

Governance disclosure is solid and long‑term debt is modest. Risks are typical of high‑growth software: maintaining culture as scale increases, integrating acquisitions, and balancing SBC with shareholder returns.

Good

Is ServiceNow a quality company?

ServiceNow is a good quality company with a quality score of 88/100

88
Good
  • Moat compounded by multi‑workflow penetration and 98 percent renewal rates, driving durable expansion within accounts.
  • Secular tailwinds from AI agents and workflow automation, with cRPO and RPO growth outpacing revenue and nearly 1,000 AI customers cited around Pro Plus adoption.
  • TTM free cash flow of about 3.88 billion dollars at roughly 32 percent margin supports strong reinvestment capacity and selective buybacks.
  • Net cash position and modest long‑term debt limit downside in macro slowdowns or pricing transitions.
  • Watch items: stock‑based compensation and dilution, partial shift to consumption for AI, and hyperscaler or adjacent suite competition potentially pressuring pricing over time.

What is the fair value of ServiceNow stock?

Is ServiceNow a good investment at $142?

$141.86
Important Disclaimer:

The following analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The opinions expressed are based on publicly available information and historical data. Beanvest and its contributors may hold positions in the securities mentioned. Investors should conduct their own due diligence or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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