TransDigm Group

Drivers of predictability. The installed base model creates a tollbooth on flight hours, with aftermarket representing about 55% of sales and many parts consumed or overhauled on fixed intervals. Product lives and platform production often span multiple decades, smoothing volatility over time.

Defense provides an additional ballast and diversified end‑market exposure. Sources of variability. Cycles and exogenous factors can still impact results. In Q3 FY2025 management highlighted OEM build‑rate headwinds and inventory destocking, while commercial aftermarket growth moderated from post‑pandemic peaks.

We view these as timing effects rather than structural issues, but they underscore why we prefer to anchor on aftermarket cash generation rather than OEM unit volumes.