UnitedHealth Group

Revenue and free-cash growth have been relatively steady but not immune to volatility. On one hand, health insurance is recurrent: tens of millions sign annual contracts, and medical spending trends are secularly up (aging population, tech-driven care).

Indeed, UNH grew from $371.6B in 2023 to $400.3B in 2024, and Q1 2025 revenues hit $109.6B (+9.8% YoY). Cash flows are similarly growing. These factors make UNH a compounder with generally predictable demand.

However, short-term results can swing on utilization and regulatory changes: for example, 2025 saw higher emergency room usage and prescription costs, which cut into profits. Overall, revenue growth is steady (often in the high single digits) and recurring by nature, giving predictability. But profit predictability is lower due to cost volatility.

We rate predictability as above average: UNH’s core business is steady (insurance subscriptions, long-term contracts) and aligned with growing healthcare demand, but caution that healthcare utilization spikes and policy shifts introduce some unpredictability in margins.