Dow Inc.

Recent actions show a more disciplined, best‑owner mindset: dividend reset to align with cycle, accelerated cost‑out, sale of noncore adhesives and creation of Diamond Infrastructure Solutions to monetize infrastructure while retaining operational control and access.

Management reduced 2025 capex by about $1 billion and delayed Path2Zero by two years, balancing long‑term returns with near‑term cash. Path2Zero is expected to deliver ~$1 billion mid‑cycle EBITDA and advance decarbonization of 20% of Dow’s ethylene capacity, but project returns remain exposed to timing and cycle risk.

Share repurchases appear de‑emphasized in the trough (authorization remains, with ~$931 million available at YE 2025) which is appropriate given negative TTM FCF. We score this above average for a commodity operator, with the caveat that heavy capex through 2029/2030 and EU exit costs will weigh on FCF until spreads normalize.