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Dow Inc.

DOW
NYSE
$32.49

Does Dow have a strong competitive moat?

Intangible assets: Dow’s brands matter in certain specialty niches (silicones, coatings, adhesives) but most revenue is tied to commoditized polyolefins and intermediates where brand has little pricing leverage. Patents and formulations support pockets of differentiation but do not prevent substitution at scale.

Switching costs: Moderate in select downstream systems and long‑term supply contracts, but generally low in polyethylene and many intermediates; converters can and do mix suppliers. Network effects: None. Cost advantages: This is Dow’s most durable edge.

Its integrated North American footprint, advantaged ethane feedstock and world‑scale assets provide first‑quartile unit costs versus naphtha‑based peers, and the Path2Zero project aims to extend this with lower emissions intensity. However, the advantage is tempered by global overcapacity, Chinese new builds and weak European competitiveness.

Efficient scale: Regional olefins chains can exhibit efficient‑scale dynamics once incumbents rationalize capacity, and Dow is contributing to European rationalization by exiting higher‑cost sites, which may improve industry utilization over time. We weight cost advantage highest, then efficient scale, then switching costs, then intangibles.

Risks to durability include: prolonged global oversupply, policy/regulatory constraints on single‑use plastics, and potential technology shifts accelerating circular and bio‑based substitutes.