ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips benefits from scale, high‑quality acreage and a diversified global portfolio across the Lower 48, Alaska, Canada oil sands and international gas/LNG, which confers a cost advantage versus many independents.

The 2023 analyst day framed a roughly 35 dollar WTI FCF breakeven and a sub‑40 dollar WTI cost‑of‑supply resource base, indicating durable low‑cost inventory.

Efficient scale applies in select basins like Alaska and in LNG marketing, where the company has secured positions in Qatar NFE/NFS and Gulf Coast offtake at Port Arthur and Rio Grande, which improve market access and realizations. Intangibles include the Optimized Cascade LNG technology licensing business, although it is not a core profit driver.

There are no meaningful network effects and customer switching costs are minimal given the commodity nature.

Potential moat erosion stems from cost inflation in remote Alaska development (Willow capex now 8.5 to 9.0 billion dollars), regulatory and permitting risk in sensitive jurisdictions, and the long‑term energy transition which may pressure oil demand.

Component scores and weights: cost advantage 75 (weight 40 percent), efficient scale 60 (25 percent), intangibles 55 (20 percent), switching costs 25 (10 percent), network effects 5 (5 percent). Weighted result approximates 59 to 60.