ConocoPhillips

Production guidance is clear and near‑term growth is visible, with 2025 guidance of about 2.375 MMBOED and preliminary 2026 guidance showing flat to modest growth and lower operating costs.

Longer‑dated projects provide line of sight to step‑ups: LNG offtake contracts with start‑ups expected in 2026 to 2031 and Willow first oil targeted in early 2029. Still, cash flows remain intrinsically volatile, tracking commodity prices, fiscal regimes and cost inflation.

We view predictability as mid‑range for the sector, better than small E&Ps given scale and diversification but far below toll‑like business models.