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Atmos Energy

NYSE: ATO · USD

Atmos Energy (ATO) Economic Moat Analysis—

Avantages concurrentiels, preuves datées et risques d’érosion.

Analyse à actualiser

Narrow avantage concurrentiel

Atmos Energy has a narrow moat supported by established regulated infrastructure, historically renewed franchises and limited historical pipeline competition. Actual rate recoveries and increased contracted capacity demonstrate economic benefits beyond reported margins. Pricing power operates through regulatory approval rather than unrestricted price setting. Capital requirements, recovery delays, alternative energy and potential pipeline entry limit confidence in wider durability.

Efficient scale

Established distribution, transmission and storage infrastructure supports an incumbent advantage. Historically renewed franchises and limited pipeline competition, combined with demonstrated regulatory recovery of investment costs, support a narrow moat. The passages do not establish exclusive territories or quantify the economics of duplicating the network.

Durabilité
Historical franchise renewals, recurring capital-recovery mechanisms and increased tariff-customer capacity support persistence. Continued franchise renewal and favorable regulation remain necessary; neither is guaranteed.
Concurrents
Comparaison non établie
Risques d’érosion
Industrial customers can substitute electricity or bypass the system; new pipelines could increase competition. Regulatory disallowances, recovery delays, safety obligations and dependence on external financing could weaken investment economics. These disclosed possibilities are not evidence of realized competitive deterioration.
Ce qui invaliderait la thèse
The thesis would weaken materially if franchises were lost, competing pipelines or customer bypass caused sustained losses of contracted capacity, or repeated regulatory disallowances prevented recovery of prudently incurred investment. Sustained demand contraction alongside rising unrecovered infrastructure costs would also invalidate it.
Preuves (8) · Contre-preuves (5)

Évolution depuis la dernière analyse

  • No comparable previous version.

Limites de l’analyse

  • Assessment uses only supplied passages. Filing dates are November 14, 2025, August 5, 2026 and December 19, 2025, respectively; each retains dateKind filed.
  • Competition disclosures identify generic categories, not named direct competitors. Suppliers, compensation peers and directors' former employers do not establish competitive coverage.
  • Exclusive service rights, franchise durations, network duplication costs and comparative investment returns are not supplied. Efficient scale is an inference from infrastructure, franchise history and disclosed limited competition.
  • Historical competition and franchise-renewal statements are issuer disclosures; future renewal and cost-recovery expectations are management claims.
  • Customer dependency and retention are assessed indirectly from operating demand, customer growth and contracted capacity. No retention rate or customer-level switching study is supplied.
  • Governance and incentive terms are disclosed, but executive ownership balances, ownership-guideline compliance and a complete assessment of realized compensation outcomes are absent. Director nominees are not treated as subsequently elected directors.
  • The Louisiana demand-fee escalator concerns an affiliate transaction and does not independently demonstrate third-party willingness to pay. Interim 2026 results do not establish full-year outcomes or exceptional durability.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse

Ratios calculés à partir des publications annuelles. Une valeur manquante reste indisponible. Les graphiques détaillés sont accessibles dans les autres onglets.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse
PériodeGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
202169.7%26.6%5.6%-89.6%
202260.0%21.9%5.1%-34.9%
202366.0%25.0%5.4%15.3%
2024—32.5%6.1%-28.9%
2025—33.2%6.0%-32.2%

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Management—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Sources et méthode

Analyse à actualiser · Mis à jour 18/10/2026 · Version 6

Interprétation IA fondée sur des extraits vérifiés. Les déclarations de l’entreprise et les limites de couverture restent explicites.

Méthode quality-scores-2 : six catégories de même poids. Le score global exige une couverture complète. Les données manquantes ne valent pas zéro. Les évaluations qualitatives sont des interprétations sourcées, pas des probabilités. 3/6 · 24/10/2026

Moat—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Prévisibilité45

Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
75.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
10.08
Positive FCF years (%)
20.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
33.33

Solidité financière19

Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

debtFcfGrade
0.00
netDebtEbitGrade
0.00
interestCoverageGrade
73.51
currentRatioGrade
1.80
Net debt / operating income (x)
5.59
Interest coverage (x)
9.09
Current ratio (x)
0.77

Allocation du capital33

Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year pre-tax operating return (%)
6.93
3-year average dilution (%)
4.87
3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
0.26
cashConversionGrade
0.00

Qualité du management—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Preuves

Historically, we have successfully renewed these franchises and believe that we will continue to be able to renew our franchises as they expire.

Business / historical franchise renewals and management renewal expectations · Dépôt 14/11/2025

Our pipeline and storage operations historically have faced limited competition from other existing intrastate pipelines and gas marketers seeking to provide or arrange transportation, storage, and other services for customers.

Business / historical pipeline and storage competition · Dépôt 14/11/2025

Revenues in this operating segment are established by regulatory authorities in the states in which we operate.

Business / regulatory establishment of distribution revenues · Dépôt 14/11/2025

Purchased gas cost adjustment mechanisms provide a method of recovering purchased gas costs on an ongoing basis without filing a rate case because they provide a dollar-for-dollar offset to increases or decreases in the cost of natural gas.

Business / purchased gas cost recovery mechanism · Dépôt 14/11/2025

Key drivers for the change in operating income include: •a $184.1 million increase in rate adjustments, primarily in our Mid-Tex Division.

MD&A / fiscal 2025 distribution operating income rate-adjustment driver · Dépôt 14/11/2025

On May 12, 2026, the RRC approved the Company's GRIP filing.

MD&A / May 2026 approval of APT GRIP filing · Dépôt 05/08/2026

Key drivers for the change in operating income include: •a $75.7 million increase primarily due to rate adjustments from the GRIP filings approved in June 2025 and May 2026.

MD&A / realized pipeline operating income contribution from approved rate adjustments · Dépôt 05/08/2026

•a $12.1 million increase due to higher capacity contracted by tariff-based customers due to their increased peak day demand.

MD&A / increased capacity contracted by tariff-based customers · Dépôt 05/08/2026

In the case of industrial customers, such as manufacturing plants, adverse economic conditions, including higher gas costs, could cause these customers to use alternative sources of energy, such as electricity, or bypass our systems in favor of special competitive contracts with lower per-unit costs.

Risk discussion / industrial energy substitution and system bypass · Dépôt 14/11/2025

The completion of new pipelines in our service area may increase the competition in this segment of our business.

Business / potential competition from new pipelines · Dépôt 14/11/2025

Although we believe these costs are ultimately recoverable through our rates based on the regulatory frameworks currently available to us, full recovery is not assured.

MD&A / management recovery expectation and absence of assured full recovery · Dépôt 05/08/2026

These risks and uncertainties include the following: federal, state, and local regulatory and political trends and decisions, including the impact of rate proceedings before various state regulatory commissions; increased federal regulatory oversight and potential penalties; possible increased federal, state, and local regulation of the safety of our operations; possible significant costs and liabilities resulting from pipeline integrity and other similar programs and related repairs; the inherent hazards and risks involved in distributing, transporting, and storing natural gas; the availability and accessibility of contracted gas supplies, interstate pipeline, and/or storage services; increased competition from energy suppliers and alternative forms of energy; failure to attract and retain a qualified workforce; natural disasters, adverse weather, terrorist activities, or other events and other risks and uncertainties discussed herein, all of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control; failure of technology that affects the Company's business operations; the threat of cyber-attacks or acts of cyber-terrorism that could disrupt our business operations and information technology systems or result in the loss or exposure of confidential or sensitive customer, employee, or Company information; the impact of new cybersecurity compliance requirements; adverse weather conditions; the impact of legislation to reduce or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions or fossil fuels; the impact of climate change; the capital-intensive nature of our business; our ability to continue to access the credit and capital markets to execute our business strategy; market risks beyond our control affecting our risk management activities, including commodity price volatility, counterparty performance or creditworthiness, and interest rate risk; the concentration of our operations in Texas; the impact of adverse economic conditions on our customers; changes in the availability and price of natural gas; and increased costs of providing health care benefits, along with pension and postretirement health care benefits and increased funding requirements.

Forward-looking risk discussion / regulation, safety, alternative energy and capital access · Dépôt 05/08/2026

5 ATMOS ENERGY CORPORATION CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS Nine Months Ended June 30 2026 2025 (Unaudited) (In thousands) Cash Flows From Operating Activities Net income $ 1,227,552 $ 1,023,863 Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities: Depreciation and amortization expense 591,853 549,069 Deferred income taxes 300,650 214,609 Other (50,435) (49,402) Net assets / liabilities from risk management activities 1,417 (1,966) Net change in other operating assets and liabilities (399,571) (34,841) Net cash provided by operating activities 1,671,466 1,701,332 Cash Flows From Investing Activities Capital expenditures (3,076,281) (2,597,787) Debt and equity securities activities, net (6,168) (2,348) Other, net 6,317 6,469 Net cash used in investing activities (3,076,132) (2,593,666) Cash Flows From Financing Activities Net proceeds from equity issuances 941,694 568,603 Issuance of common stock through stock purchase and employee retirement plans 4,783 11,532 Proceeds from issuance of long-term debt 1,296,231 1,143,447 Repayment of long-term debt (10,000) — Repayment of securitized long-term debt by AEK (4,394) (4,051) Cash dividends paid (490,698) (412,312) Debt issuance costs (10,944) (10,140) Net cash provided by financing activities 1,726,672 1,297,079 Net increase in cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash and cash equivalents 322,006 404,745 Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 203,803 308,856 Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash and cash equivalents at end of period $ 525,809 $ 713,601 See accompanying notes to condensed consolidated financial statements.

Condensed consolidated cash flows / nine-month spending, cash generation and financing · Dépôt 05/08/2026

•a $26.7 million increase related to residential customer growth, primarily in our Mid-Tex Division, and increased industrial load.

MD&A / fiscal 2025 residential customer growth and increased industrial load · Dépôt 14/11/2025

Nine Months Ended June 30 2026 2025 Change (In thousands, unless otherwise noted) Mid-Tex / Affiliate transportation revenue $ 680,779 $ 602,105 $ 78,674 Third-party transportation revenue 214,871 174,061 40,810 Other revenue 13,325 10,611 2,714 Total operating revenues 908,975 786,777 122,198 Total purchased gas cost 1,836 (638) 2,474 Operating expenses 331,384 342,161 (10,777) Operating income 575,755 445,254 130,501 Other non-operating income 31,205 38,361 (7,156) Interest charges 48,843 57,869 (9,026) Income before income taxes 558,117 425,746 132,371 Income tax expense 126,488 93,220 33,268 Net income $ 431,629 $ 332,526 $ 99,103 Gross pipeline transportation volumes — MMcf 681,829 678,457 3,372 Consolidated pipeline transportation volumes — MMcf 526,249 507,870 18,379 Operating income for our pipeline and storage segment increased 29.3 percent.

MD&A / nine-month pipeline revenues, transportation volumes and operating results · Dépôt 05/08/2026

Three Months Ended June 30 2026 2025 Change (In thousands, unless otherwise noted) Operating revenues $ 774,658 $ 767,132 $ 7,526 Purchased gas cost 237,072 255,883 (18,811) Operating expenses 428,505 415,783 12,722 Operating income 109,081 95,466 13,615 Other non-operating income 8,732 7,017 1,715 Interest charges 12,870 22,271 (9,401) Income before income taxes 104,943 80,212 24,731 Income tax expense 15,558 9,731 5,827 Net income $ 89,385 $ 70,481 $ 18,904 Consolidated distribution sales volumes — MMcf 37,376 41,008 (3,632) Consolidated distribution transportation volumes — MMcf 35,767 34,346 1,421 Total consolidated distribution throughput — MMcf 73,143 75,354 (2,211) Consolidated distribution average cost of gas per Mcf sold $ 6.34 $ 6.24 $ 0.10 30 Operating income for our distribution segment increased 14.3 percent.

MD&A / quarterly distribution operating results and throughput · Dépôt 05/08/2026

This risk is currently mitigated by rate design that allows us to collect from our customers the gas cost portion of our bad debt expense on approximately 89 percent of our residential and commercial revenues.

MD&A / rate-design recovery of the gas-cost portion of bad debt · Dépôt 05/08/2026

The demand fee our Louisiana natural gas transmission pipeline charges to our Louisiana distribution division increases five percent annually and has been approved by the Louisiana Public Service Commission until September 30, 2027.

MD&A / approved annual Louisiana affiliate demand-fee increases through September 2027 · Dépôt 05/08/2026

Additionally, our pipeline and storage segment's income before income taxes for the nine months ended June 30, 2026 was favorably impacted by $61.6 million as a result of Texas legislation that became effective during the third quarter of fiscal 2025 related to infrastructure spending.

MD&A / favorable pipeline pretax income impact from Texas infrastructure legislation · Dépôt 05/08/2026

Operating cash flow decreased by $29.9 million primarily due to the timing of gas cost recoveries.

MD&A / operating cash-flow decline attributed to timing of gas-cost recoveries · Dépôt 05/08/2026

The following table presents our capitalization inclusive of short-term debt and the current portion of long-term debt as of June 30, 2026, September 30, 2025 and June 30, 2025: June 30, 2026 September 30, 2025 June 30, 2025 (In thousands, except percentages) Short-term debt $ — — % $ — — % $ — — % Long-term debt (1) 10,251,258 40.2 % 8,918,944 39.7 % 8,919,726 40.0 % Shareholders’ equity 15,258,058 59.8 % 13,558,890 60.3 % 13,385,838 60.0 % Total $ 25,509,316 100.0 % $ 22,477,834 100.0 % $ 22,305,564 100.0 % (1) Inclusive of our finance leases, but exclusive of AEK's securitized long-term debt.

Liquidity and capital resources / debt and equity capitalization · Dépôt 05/08/2026

Debt Covenants We were in compliance with all of our debt covenants as of June 30, 2026.

Liquidity and capital resources / actual debt-covenant compliance · Dépôt 05/08/2026

In fiscal 2025, we generated net income of $1,198.8 million or $7.46 per diluted share representing increases over net income for the year ended September 30, 2024 of $1,042.9 million or $6.83 per diluted share.

Compensation discussion / fiscal 2025 net income and diluted EPS outcomes · Dépôt 19/12/2025

4 ATMOS ENERGY CORPORATION CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME Nine Months Ended June 30 2026 2025 (Unaudited) (In thousands, except per share data) Operating revenues Distribution segment $ 3,911,164 $ 3,758,995 Pipeline and storage segment 908,975 786,777 Intersegment eliminations (636,093) (580,497) Total operating revenues 4,184,046 3,965,275 Purchased gas cost Distribution segment 1,605,020 1,647,490 Pipeline and storage segment 1,836 (638) Intersegment eliminations (635,326) (579,731) Total purchased gas cost 971,530 1,067,121 Operation and maintenance expense 648,762 662,440 Depreciation and amortization expense 591,853 549,069 Taxes, other than income 371,919 346,159 Operating income 1,599,982 1,340,486 Other non-operating income 55,760 68,906 Interest charges 115,288 144,476 Income before income taxes 1,540,454 1,264,916 Income tax expense 312,902 241,053 Net income $ 1,227,552 $ 1,023,863 Basic net income per share $ 7.40 $ 6.47 Diluted net income per share $ 7.33 $ 6.40 Cash dividends per share $ 3.00 $ 2.61 Basic weighted average shares outstanding 165,845 158,245 Diluted weighted average shares outstanding 167,352 159,798 Net income $ 1,227,552 $ 1,023,863 Other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax Net unrealized holding losses on available-for-sale securities, net of tax of $(69) and $(13) (242) (34) Cash flow hedges: Amortization and unrealized gains (losses) on interest rate agreements, net of tax of $(4,070) and $2,264 (14,366) 12,279 Total other comprehensive income (loss) (14,608) 12,245 Total comprehensive income $ 1,212,944 $ 1,036,108 See accompanying notes to condensed consolidated financial statements.

Condensed consolidated income statement / nine-month earnings and diluted EPS · Dépôt 05/08/2026

Element Description Objective within Compensation Program Base Salary Fixed cash compensation, subject to annual review Adjusted in response to changes in performance, duties, strategic importance, or competitive salary practices •Reflects roles, responsibilities, skills, experience, and performance •Provides base compensation at a level consistent with competitive salary practices Annual Incentive Compensation Annual cash performance award based on achievement of Company financial performance measures Option to convert all or portion of award to time-based RSUs under our LTIP with three-year cliff vesting at a 20% premium Payout is limited to target if TSR is negative for the fiscal year •Increases alignment of senior management and shareholders’ interests by linking pay and performance •Promotes achievement of annual Company financial goals by linking pay to attainment of such goals Long-Term Incentive Compensation 75% in performance-based RSUs payable only if performance goals are achieved over the three-fiscal year performance period 25% in time-based RSUs also payable, with cliff vesting, at the end of the three-fiscal year period Payout for performance-based RSUs is limited to target if TSR is negative for the performance period •Motivates and rewards financial performance over a sustained period •Increases alignment of senior management and shareholders’ interests by encouraging share ownership of senior management •Enhances retention of senior management •Rewards strong TSR and earnings growth Retirement Benefits Tax-qualified retirement, supplemental retirement and other benefits •Provides for current and future needs of senior management •Enhances recruitment and retention •Follows competitive market practices Change in Control Severance Benefits Change in control severance agreements with contingent amounts payable only if employment is terminated under certain conditions following a change in control •Enhances retention of senior management by providing continuity of employment •Promotes objective evaluation and execution of potential changes to the Company’s strategy and structure 2026 Proxy Statement 37 Compensation Discussion & Analysis Fiscal 2025 Actual Results The table below shows the target performance, adjusted performance, and actual results for our fiscal 2025 performance-based compensation.

Compensation discussion / fiscal 2025 incentive structure, vesting and negative-TSR payout limits · Dépôt 19/12/2025

Minimum ownership levels are as follows: Position Minimum Ownership Level Chairman of the Board 5X annual retainer CEO 7X base salary Non-Employee Directors 5X annual retainer Ownership Sources Included •Direct or indirect ownership of Company stock •Unvested time-based RSUs •Share units held by non-employee directors under our Directors Plan (defined on page 30) and the LTIP 2026 Proxy Statement 31 Proposal 2 Ratification of Appointment of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm The Audit Committee has appointed E&Y to continue as our independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026.

Director compensation / CEO and director ownership guidelines and eligible ownership sources · Dépôt 19/12/2025

Only independent directors serve on our Audit Committee, Human Resources Committee (“HR Committee”) and Governance Committee, and all standing Board committees are chaired by independent directors.

Corporate governance / independent committee membership and chairmanship · Dépôt 19/12/2025

Executive Sessions Independent directors regularly hold executive sessions of the Board led by the Lead Director outside the presence of the Chairman, the President and CEO, or any other Company employee, and they generally meet in a private session with the Chairman and the President and CEO at regularly scheduled Board meetings.

Corporate governance / independent director executive sessions · Dépôt 19/12/2025

However, Mr. Akers (along with any other named executive officers in attendance at HR Committee meetings), are excused when the compensation of such named executive officers is discussed and decisions regarding their compensation are reached by the HR Committee.

Compensation process / executive exclusion from own compensation decisions · Dépôt 19/12/2025

Historique des publications

Historique des publications
VersionMis à jourAvantage concurrentiel
624/10/2026narrow
523/10/2026narrow
422/10/2026narrow
318/10/2026narrow
218/10/2026narrow
118/10/2026Indisponible

Sources

Méthode et limites de l’analyse · Comprendre ce concept