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CSX

NASDAQ: CSX · USD

CSX (CSX) Economic Moat Analysis63

Avantages concurrentiels, preuves datées et risques d’érosion.

Narrow avantage concurrentiel

CSX’s moat is narrow, anchored by efficient scale from its ~20,000‑mile Eastern U.S. rail network, broad port/terminal access and long‑lived rights‑of‑way, which are expensive to replicate. Rail/intermodal’s cost advantage over long‑haul trucking and demonstrated 2026 pricing gains reinforce competitiveness. However, trucking competition, severe weather rebuilds and regulatory constraints temper width and resilience.

Efficient scale

A ~20,000‑mile network with 70+ port connections, ~30 intermodal terminals and ~250 short‑line links, underpinned by long‑term right‑of‑way control and sustained infrastructure capex, creates efficient scale across the Eastern U.S. that is costly to replicate.

Durabilité
Long‑lived track assets, a 50‑year right‑of‑way lease and ongoing network investments support persistence; commercial partnerships extend reach.
Concurrents
CPKC, BNSF, CN
Risques d’érosion
Severe weather disruptions, regulatory changes and cross‑modal competition can strain capacity, require costly rebuilds or dilute route advantages.
Ce qui invaliderait la thèse
Sustained share loss in core lanes, mandated open access, or inability to reinvest (e.g., curtailed capex) undermining service and returns would invalidate scale benefits.
Preuves (10) · Contre-preuves (4)

Cost advantage

Rail/intermodal service offers a cost advantage versus long‑haul trucking, with 2026 results showing higher pricing across merchandise, intermodal and coal, and domestic intermodal gains tied to customer wins and a tighter truck market.

Durabilité
Structural rail fuel efficiency and dense corridors support a sustained unit‑cost edge, though it varies with trucking capacity and fuel cycles.
Concurrents
Comparaison non établie
Risques d’érosion
Trucking competition, fuel price volatility and fuel‑surcharge timing lags can compress realized price; macro shifts may weaken intermodal.
Ce qui invaliderait la thèse
If trucking sustains comparable long‑haul costs/service or CSX cannot hold price/mix as volumes grow across cycles, the cost edge would erode.
Preuves (5) · Contre-preuves (3)

Évolution depuis la dernière analyse

  • Updated with 2Q–3Q 2026 volume, pricing and margin disclosures; moat verdict unchanged (narrow).

Limites de l’analyse

  • Competitor performance and market share data are not provided; named railroads appear as partners, not in comparative results.
  • Pricing commentary includes fuel surcharges and may reflect mix; contract lengths/terms are undisclosed.
  • Route exclusivity and regulatory barriers are not quantified.
  • Switching frictions are inferred from physical connectivity; explicit captive-customer metrics are absent.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse

Ratios calculés à partir des publications annuelles. Une valeur manquante reste indisponible. Les graphiques détaillés sont accessibles dans les autres onglets.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse
PériodeGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
2021—44.7%15.7%26.4%
2022—40.6%16.5%23.5%
2023—37.9%—22.3%
2024—36.1%—18.7%
2025—32.1%—12.1%

Pouvoir de fixation des prix56

  • Pricing outcomes

    Management reported higher pricing across merchandise, intermodal and coal alongside volume growth in both 2Q and 3Q 2026, indicating realized price gains rather than only mix.

  • Customer demand

    Total volumes rose 6% in 2Q and 5% in 3Q 2026, with intermodal leading—consistent with ongoing customer demand. However, volumes are an indirect proxy and do not provide renewal or churn metrics.

  • Margin resilience

    Operating margins expanded to 38.3% in 2Q and 39.1% in 3Q 2026. While supportive, margins also reflect fuel surcharges and costs; they don’t isolate structural pricing from fuel/mix effects.

  • Pricing freedom

    Fuel surcharges enable pass‑throughs, but non‑intermodal traffic has a two‑month pricing lag, evidencing partial, timing‑constrained contractual flexibility. Broader contract terms remain undisclosed.

Management63

  • Capital discipline

    Significant, targeted infrastructure capex with 2026 spend guided below 2025, improved free cash flow, and a new repurchase authorization show discipline; hurricane rebuild needs highlight capital intensity and volatility.

  • Incentive alignment

    Incentives use multiple financial measures, stock ownership guidelines, and explicit pay‑for‑performance links, supporting alignment with shareholder outcomes.

  • Execution

    Volume growth, intermodal gains, and efficiency savings indicate operational progress; however, the prior‑year goodwill impairment tempers the assessment of consistent execution.

  • Governance

    Disclosed practices include an independent chair, annual elections, majority voting and fully independent key committees; the board confirmed director independence under NASDAQ standards.

Sources et méthode

Publication courante · Mis à jour 29/10/2026 · Version 11

Interprétation IA fondée sur des extraits vérifiés. Les déclarations de l’entreprise et les limites de couverture restent explicites.

Méthode quality-scores-3 : six catégories de même poids. Le score global exige une couverture complète. Les données manquantes ne valent pas zéro. Les évaluations qualitatives sont des interprétations sourcées, pas des probabilités. 4/6 · 29/10/2026

Moat63

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

structural advantage · 3/4 · CSX operates a ~20,000‑mile Eastern U.S. rail network with extensive port, terminal and short‑line connections, reinforced by long‑term right‑of‑way control and heavy, recurring infrastructure capex—features that are difficult and costly to replicate.

durability · 3/4 · A 50‑year right‑of‑way lease and sustained infrastructure investment support long asset lives and service continuity; reopening the Blue Ridge subdivision after hurricane damage evidences restoration capability.

customer dependency · 2/4 · Service to thousands of facilities, 70+ ports and ~30 terminals indicates deep supply‑chain integration, suggesting moderate switching frictions; however, explicit captive‑site data or contract stickiness is not disclosed.

erosion resilience · 2/4 · CSX restored a key line post‑hurricane, but severe weather, regulatory costs and competition from trucking remain ongoing pressures that can erode advantages or require significant rebuild spending.

Pouvoir de fixation des prix56

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

realized pricing · 3/4 · Management reported higher pricing across merchandise, intermodal and coal alongside volume growth in both 2Q and 3Q 2026, indicating realized price gains rather than only mix.

retention · 2/4 · Total volumes rose 6% in 2Q and 5% in 3Q 2026, with intermodal leading—consistent with ongoing customer demand. However, volumes are an indirect proxy and do not provide renewal or churn metrics.

margin resilience · 2/4 · Operating margins expanded to 38.3% in 2Q and 39.1% in 3Q 2026. While supportive, margins also reflect fuel surcharges and costs; they don’t isolate structural pricing from fuel/mix effects.

contractual freedom · 2/4 · Fuel surcharges enable pass‑throughs, but non‑intermodal traffic has a two‑month pricing lag, evidencing partial, timing‑constrained contractual flexibility. Broader contract terms remain undisclosed.

Prévisibilité76

5 consecutive published annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
25.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
8.85
Positive FCF years (%)
100.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
4.90
observedAnnualPeriods
5.00

Solidité financière—

Missing required inputs: netDebtEbitGrade. Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, an original issuer-reported unadjusted EBIT reconciled to net income, income tax and signed net interest, or reported pretax profit plus reported gross interest expense. Reported EBIT is distinct from GAAP operating income and gross interest. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

debtFcfGrade
0.00
interestCoverageGrade
39.61
currentRatioGrade
5.11
Debt / FCF (x)
11.03
Interest coverage (x)
5.36
Current ratio (x)
0.81

Allocation du capital—

Missing required inputs: operatingReturn. Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income, an original issuer-reported unadjusted EBIT reconciled to net income, income tax and signed net interest, or EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported gross interest expense; the issuer-reported EBIT is distinct from GAAP operating income and gross interest; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. ROIC remains undefined for nonpositive invested capital; the explicit asset-return alternative does not change the ROIC chart. Missing financial inputs alone never trigger an alternative. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year average dilution (%)
-4.33
3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
0.36
cashConversionGrade
76.40

Qualité du management63

Equal-weight average of four evidence-backed rubric grades (0–4), scaled to 100.

capital discipline · 2/4 · Significant, targeted infrastructure capex with 2026 spend guided below 2025, improved free cash flow, and a new repurchase authorization show discipline; hurricane rebuild needs highlight capital intensity and volatility.

incentive alignment · 3/4 · Incentives use multiple financial measures, stock ownership guidelines, and explicit pay‑for‑performance links, supporting alignment with shareholder outcomes.

execution · 2/4 · Volume growth, intermodal gains, and efficiency savings indicate operational progress; however, the prior‑year goodwill impairment tempers the assessment of consistent execution.

governance · 3/4 · Disclosed practices include an independent chair, annual elections, majority voting and fully independent key committees; the board confirmed director independence under NASDAQ standards.

Preuves

(“CSXT”), provides an important link to the transportation supply chain through its approximately 20,000 route-mile rail network and serves major population centers in 26 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec.

2025 10-K, Business description · Dépôt 12/02/2026

It has access to over 70 ocean, river and lake port terminals along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, the Mississippi River, the Great Lakes and the St.

2025 10-K, Business description (ports) · Dépôt 12/02/2026

Lawrence Seaway. This access allows the Company to meet the dynamic transportation needs of manufacturers, industrial producers, the automotive industry, construction companies, farmers and feed mills, wholesalers and retailers, and energy producers.

2025 10-K, Business description (ports cont.) · Dépôt 12/02/2026

Through a network of approximately 30 terminals, the intermodal business serves all major markets east of the Mississippi River and transports mainly manufactured consumer goods in containers, providing customers with truck-like service for longer shipments.

2025 10-K, Intermodal network · Dépôt 12/02/2026

CSXT also serves thousands of production and distribution facilities through track connections with other Class I railroads and approximately 250 short-line and regional railroads.

2025 10-K, Network connectivity to facilities/short-lines · Dépôt 12/02/2026

The Company has various lease agreements with other parties with terms up to 50 years, including a significant operating lease with the State of Georgia for approximately 137 miles of right-of-way with integral track assets for a term of 50 years with an annual 2.5% increase.

2025 10-K, Long-term right-of-way lease · Dépôt 12/02/2026

Years Ended Capital Expenditures (Dollars in Millions) 2025 2024 Track $ 987 $ 1,039 Bridges, Signals, PTC and Other 1,252 802 Total Infrastructure 2,239 1,841 Strategic Projects and Commercial Facilities 332 364 Locomotives 208 250 Freight Cars 123 74 Cash Invested for Capital Expenditures $ 2,902 $ 2,529 CSX 2025 Form 10-K p.39 CSX CORPORATION PART II Capital expenditures above include approximately $470 million and $50 million in 2025 and 2024, respectively, related to rebuilding the Blue Ridge subdivision as a result of impacts from Hurricane Helene.

2025 10-K, Capital expenditures (infrastructure) · Dépôt 12/02/2026

We launched the Southeast Mexico Express with CPKC, creating a seamless solution linking U.S.

2026 Proxy, Partnered service with CPKC · Dépôt 30/03/2026

Southeast markets with Mexico. With BNSF, we developed faster services connecting the Los Angeles Basin to Atlanta, Charlotte, and other areas in the East, providing customers with a compelling long-haul solution.

2026 Proxy, Partnered service with BNSF · Dépôt 30/03/2026

Working with CN, we strengthened service connecting Canada to Nashville, opening new end-to-end supply chain options across North America.

2026 Proxy, Partnered service with CN · Dépôt 30/03/2026

The intermodal business combines the superior economics of rail transportation with the flexibility of trucks and offers a cost and environmental advantage over long-haul trucking.

2025 10-K, Intermodal cost advantage vs trucking · Dépôt 12/02/2026

7,417 $ 6,997 6 % $ 2,293 $ 2,259 2 % 7 CSX Corporation VOLUME AND REVENUE Total revenue increased 10% in second quarter 2026 when compared to second quarter 2025 primarily due to increased fuel surcharge revenue together with higher volume and pricing across merchandise, intermodal and coal.

Q2 2026 QFR, Volume/Revenue commentary · Dépôt 22/07/2026

10 Coal 548 537 2 1,515 1,428 6 2,765 2,659 4 Trucking — — — 655 620 6 — — — Other — — — 405 408 (1) — — — Total 4,922 4,710 5 % $ 11,434 $ 10,584 8 % $ 2,323 $ 2,247 3 % 7 CSX Corporation VOLUME AND REVENUE Total revenue increased 12% in third quarter 2026 when compared to third quarter 2025 primarily due to increased fuel surcharge revenue as well as higher volume and pricing across merchandise, intermodal and coal.

Q3 2026 QFR, Volume/Revenue commentary · Dépôt 21/10/2026

Intermodal Volume Domestic shipments increased due to wins with key customers, new service offerings and a tightening truck environment.

Q3 2026 QFR, Intermodal volume drivers · Dépôt 21/10/2026

•Volume increased 6% with broad-based growth across markets led by 9% intermodal growth

Q2 2026 Press Release, Volume growth · Dépôt 22/07/2026

Fuel Surcharge Fuel surcharge revenue is included in the individual markets and does not include amounts for trucking.

Q3 2026 QFR, Fuel surcharge description · Dépôt 21/10/2026

Fuel lag is the estimated revenue effect resulting from the difference between highway diesel prices in the quarter and the prices used for fuel surcharge, which are on a two-month lag for non-intermodal traffic.

Q3 2026 QFR, Fuel lag timing (non-intermodal) · Dépôt 21/10/2026

•natural events such as severe weather conditions, including floods, fire, hurricanes and earthquakes, a pandemic crisis affecting the health of the Company's employees, its shippers or the consumers of goods, or other unforeseen disruptions of the Company's operations, systems, property, equipment or supply chain;

Q3 2026 10-Q, Risk factors (severe weather) · Dépôt 21/10/2026

•competition from other modes of freight transportation, such as trucking, and competition and consolidation or financial distress within the transportation industry generally;

Q3 2026 10-Q, Risk factors (competition incl. trucking) · Dépôt 21/10/2026

•the cost of compliance with laws and regulations that differ from expectations as well as costs, penalties and operational and liquidity impacts associated with noncompliance with applicable laws or regulations;

Q3 2026 10-Q, Risk factors (regulatory) · Dépôt 21/10/2026

c)Property Additions: Property additions for the prior year nine months ended September 30, 2025, include $440 million related to rebuilding the Blue Ridge subdivision as a result of impacts from Hurricane Helene.

Q3 2026 QFR, Hurricane Helene Blue Ridge rebuild cost · Dépôt 21/10/2026

The Blue Ridge subdivision reopened in September 2025.

Q3 2026 QFR, Blue Ridge subdivision reopened · Dépôt 21/10/2026

•Total volume up 5%, with intermodal volume increasing by 7%

Q3 2026 Press Release, Volume +5% (intermodal +7%) · Dépôt 21/10/2026

•Operating income of $1.57 billion, up 44%; operating margin expanded 880 bps to 39.1%

Q3 2026 QFR, Operating margin expanded to 39.1% · Dépôt 21/10/2026

•Operating income of $1.51 billion, up 17%; operating margin expanded 240 bps to 38.3%

Q2 2026 Press Release, Operating margin to 38.3% · Dépôt 22/07/2026

•Efficiency savings, net of inflation, of $42 million were driven by cost reductions across operating and support functions.

Q3 2026 QFR, Efficiency savings · Dépôt 21/10/2026

a)Goodwill Impairment: During the prior year third quarter 2025, the Company recognized an impairment charge of $164 million related to Quality Carrier's remaining goodwill.

Q3 2026 QFR, Prior-year goodwill impairment · Dépôt 21/10/2026

Key elements of our comprehensive governance program include: uAnnual election of directors; uMajority voting standard for the election of directors and director resignation policy;

2026 Proxy, Governance practices · Dépôt 30/03/2026

In February 2026, after considering relevant NASDAQ listing standards, the Board, upon recommendation from the Governance and Sustainability Committee, determined that the following director nominees are independent under these NASDAQ listing standards: Thomas P.

2026 Proxy, Director independence determination · Dépôt 30/03/2026

uFinancial performance measures have a strong correlation to long-term shareholder value creation

2026 Proxy, Pay-performance linkage · Dépôt 30/03/2026

uShare ownership guidelines reinforce alignment of executive and shareholder interests 2026 Proxy Statement 68 Compensation Discussion and Analysis | Elements of the Company’s 2025 Executive Compensation Program

2026 Proxy, Share ownership guidelines support alignment · Dépôt 30/03/2026

Position Minimum Value Chief Executive Officer 6 times base salary Executive Vice Presidents 4 times base salary Senior Vice Presidents 3 times base salary Vice Presidents 1 times base salary Equity Award Grant Timing CSX historically grants options and other awards at its February meeting each year.

2026 Proxy, Stock ownership multiples · Dépôt 30/03/2026

Recruit, motivate, and retain talented, high-performing executives Incentive Compensation Short-Term Incentives Cash The Company’s performance measures for the 2025 Management Incentive Compensation Plan (“MICP”) and weightings at target are:

2026 Proxy, Short-term incentive performance measures · Dépôt 30/03/2026

Planned capital investments for 2026 are expected to be less than $2.4 billion.

2025 10-K, Planned 2026 capital investments · Dépôt 12/02/2026

Nine Months Ended (Dollars in Millions) Sep.

Q3 2026 QFR, Free cash flow reconciliation · Dépôt 21/10/2026

In May 2026, the Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program, providing $5 billion of incremental authority to that remaining under the existing October 2023 share repurchase program.

Q3 2026 10-Q, New $5B repurchase authorization · Dépôt 21/10/2026

Historique des publications

Historique des publications
VersionMis à jourAvantage concurrentiel
1129/10/2026narrow
1029/10/2026narrow
928/10/2026narrow
824/10/2026narrow
723/10/2026narrow
622/10/2026narrow
519/10/2026narrow
418/10/2026narrow
318/10/2026narrow
218/10/2026narrow

Sources

Méthode et limites de l’analyse · Comprendre ce concept