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Moderna

NASDAQ: MRNA · USD

Moderna (MRNA) Economic Moat Analysis—

Avantages concurrentiels, preuves datées et risques d’érosion.

Analyse à actualiser

Absent avantage concurrentiel

Moderna has valuable vaccine approvals, monetized intellectual property and government manufacturing relationships, but demonstrated commercial weakness outweighs evidence of a durable economic moat. New product adoption and government-linked growth are meaningful positives; multiyear demand declines, minimal RSV sales, more attractive competitor terms and costly manufacturing and patent obligations show fragility. Higher average selling prices in 2023 demonstrate some realized pricing ability, but sustained pricing power is unproven.

Intangible assets

Approved vaccines and income-producing intellectual property provide current commercial value, but do not establish durable competitive protection. Government manufacturing agreements support demand visibility without demonstrating customer lock-in or superior production economics.

Durabilité
Four approved products by June 2026 and realized licensing receipts demonstrate capabilities. Patent exclusivity duration, durable product differentiation and sustained customer preference are not established. Shared manufacturing efficiencies and pipeline expansion remain potential advantages.
Concurrents
Pfizer, BioNTech, Sanofi, Novavax, GlaxoSmithKline
Risques d’érosion
Established vaccine competitors, weak RSV adoption, declining underlying demand, third-party patent dependencies and settlement expenses constrain value capture. Government-linked deliveries may support revenue without proving broader competitive strength.
Ce qui invaliderait la thèse
The limited intangible-asset advantage would weaken further if approvals fail to generate recurring demand, licensing receipts cease, or patent obligations materially restrict commercialization. The no-moat conclusion would warrant reassessment if multiple products sustain adoption and favorable realized prices across successive seasons while manufacturing utilization improves and patent costs stabilize.
Preuves (9) · Contre-preuves (8)

Évolution depuis la dernière analyse

  • Retain the previous no-moat verdict while explicitly weighing four approved products, early mNEXSPIKE adoption and government-linked sales growth.
  • Revise the pricing assessment: supplied 2023 results establish higher average selling prices, although sustained pricing power remains unproven.
  • Add assessments of adopted compensation arrangements, actual bonus outcomes and disclosed governance practices.

Limites de l’analyse

  • The evidence consists of issuer filings. The adoption statistic is attributed to IQVIA within the proxy; its underlying dataset is not supplied.
  • Sources retain dateKind=filed: February 23, 2024; February 21, 2025; February 20, March 16, May 1 and July 31, 2026. No later operating results are supplied.
  • Named competitor coverage is established for COVID and RSV vaccines, but comparative pricing, efficacy, costs and market shares are incomplete. Compensation peers, collaborators and patent litigants are not automatically product competitors.
  • Current net prices, product-level price and volume bridges, customer renewal rates, government contract exclusivity and repricing rights, and patent expiration schedules are missing.
  • The proxy supplies incentive policies and compensation outcomes, but the passages do not establish individual compliance with ownership requirements or comprehensive current beneficial ownership.
  • Pipeline and shared manufacturing benefits are potential advantages. Pending litigation allegations and generic regulatory risks are not treated as adjudicated violations or realized losses.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse

Ratios calculés à partir des publications annuelles. Une valeur manquante reste indisponible. Les graphiques détaillés sont accessibles dans les autres onglets.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse
PériodeGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
202185.8%72.0%—72.2%
202271.9%48.9%—23.8%
202331.5%-61.9%—-55.9%
202454.8%-121.9%—-125.3%
202555.3%-158.1%—-106.2%

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Management—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Sources et méthode

Analyse à actualiser · Mis à jour 18/10/2026 · Version 6

Interprétation IA fondée sur des extraits vérifiés. Les déclarations de l’entreprise et les limites de couverture restent explicites.

Méthode quality-scores-2 : six catégories de même poids. Le score global exige une couverture complète. Les données manquantes ne valent pas zéro. Les évaluations qualitatives sont des interprétations sourcées, pas des probabilités. 1/6 · 23/10/2026

Moat—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Prévisibilité26

Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
25.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
26.02
Positive FCF years (%)
40.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
75.57

Solidité financière—

Missing required inputs: debtFcfGrade, netDebtEbitGrade. Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

interestCoverageGrade
0.00
currentRatioGrade
100.00
Current ratio (x)
3.29
cashInterestPaid
10.00
cashInterestCoverage
-187.30

Allocation du capital—

Missing required inputs: operatingReturn. Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year average dilution (%)
-0.41
3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
14.19
cashConversionGrade
0.00

Qualité du management—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Preuves

As of June 30, 2026, we had four approved products—Spikevax® and mNEXSPIKE®, our COVID vaccines, mRESVIA®, our vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and mCOMBRIAX® , our flu plus COVID combination vaccine, which was approved in Europe for individuals 50 years of age and older.

Business overview: approved products as of June 30, 2026 · Dépôt 31/07/2026

Under the terms of the agreement, we received an upfront payment of $50 million, which included a $20 million prepayment creditable against future royalties.

Licensing and royalty revenue: upfront payment · Dépôt 20/02/2026

Additionally, we are entitled to receive low double-digit royalties on the net sales of the company’s COVID product.

Licensing and royalty revenue: royalty entitlement · Dépôt 20/02/2026

In accordance with the terms of the agreement, the $20 million was fully recognized by the end of the first quarter of 2025.

Licensing and royalty revenue: recognition of prepaid royalties · Dépôt 20/02/2026

Stand-Ready Manufacturing Revenue Stand-ready manufacturing revenue relates to amounts recognized under long-term strategic agreements with government entities for maintaining mRNA manufacturing capacities and support pandemic readiness.

Stand-ready manufacturing revenue: long-term government agreements · Dépôt 20/02/2026

Net product sales increased by $246 million, or 123%, primarily due to higher COVID vaccine sales in international markets, driven by deliveries under long-term strategic partnerships with government entities.

MD&A: first-half 2026 product sales growth · Dépôt 31/07/2026

mNEXSPIKE achieved strong early adoption, representing approximately 24 percent of all U.S.

Proxy summary: reported mNEXSPIKE early adoption · Dépôt 16/03/2026

retail vaccinations in 2025 and nearly one-third of vaccinations among adults aged 65 years and older (Source: IQVIA).

Proxy summary: retail vaccination adoption and attributed data source · Dépôt 16/03/2026

Seasonal vaccines We largely compete against Pfizer and BioNTech for sales of our COVID vaccines, whose vaccine is also based on mRNA technology.

Competition: COVID vaccines · Dépôt 20/02/2026

We also compete against other vaccines, including Sanofi and Novavax’s.

Competition: other COVID vaccine suppliers · Dépôt 20/02/2026

With respect to our RSV vaccine, we compete against Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline, who entered the U.S.

Competition: RSV competitors · Dépôt 20/02/2026

market prior to us, and our RSV sales have been minimal to date.

Competition: earlier competitor entry and minimal RSV sales · Dépôt 20/02/2026

In some instances, our competitors have been able to offer more attractive terms than we can, and they may continue to do so in the future.

Risk factors: realized competitor advantage in commercial terms · Dépôt 20/02/2026

For example, we experienced a decline in customer demand for our COVID vaccine in 2023 and 2024, and this trend continued in 2025 as the market transitions to a more competitive and commercially driven environment, with broader external factors continuing to affect market dynamics.

MD&A: customer demand declines during 2023–2025 · Dépôt 31/07/2026

33 Table of Contents Operating expenses Cost of sales Cost of sales for the three months ended June 30, 2026 was $93 million, which included inventory write-downs of $41 million, unutilized manufacturing capacity costs of $23 million, and third-party royalties of $11 million.

MD&A: second-quarter 2026 inventory write-downs and unused capacity · Dépôt 31/07/2026

The royalty expense recognized for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 included $6 million and $884 million, respectively, related to the litigation settlement with Arbutus and Genevant.

Commitments and contingencies: settlement-related royalty expense · Dépôt 31/07/2026

In December 2022, we entered into a non-exclusive patent license agreement with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), an Institute or Center of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), to license certain patent rights concerning stabilizing prefusion coronavirus spike proteins and the resulting stabilized proteins for use in COVID vaccine products.

Intellectual property: non-exclusive NIAID patent license · Dépôt 20/02/2026

Net product sales decreased by $11.8 billion, or 64%, in 2023, mainly due to lower sales volume across all regions in 2023, reflecting the market's transition to a seasonal commercial market for COVID-19 vaccine.

MD&A: 2023 product sales decline and volume explanation · Dépôt 23/02/2024

The decline was partially offset by a higher average selling price, particularly in the United States, where commercial market sales commenced in the third quarter of 2023.

MD&A: higher realized average selling price in 2023 · Dépôt 23/02/2024

In addition, in certain foreign jurisdictions, proposed pricing for a drug must be approved before the product may be marketed.

Pricing and reimbursement: foreign pricing approval requirements · Dépôt 20/02/2026

In the EU, Member States may limit the medicinal products eligible for reimbursement under national health insurance systems and may impose direct or indirect controls on pricing or profitability.

Pricing and reimbursement: EU pricing and reimbursement controls · Dépôt 20/02/2026

These efforts allowed us to reduce our annual operating expenses by approximately $2.2 billion, significantly exceeding the financial cost reduction commitments we set at the start of the year.

Proxy summary: reported 2025 operating expense reduction · Dépôt 16/03/2026

As a result of this initiative, we incurred inventory write-downs of $903 million related to raw materials, and CMO wind down costs and cancellation fees of $513 million.

MD&A: realized inventory and manufacturing wind-down charges · Dépôt 23/02/2024

8 Table of Contents Common Stock Additional Paid-In Capital Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income Retained Earnings Total Stockholders’ Equity Shares Amount Balance at December 31, 2025 394 $ — $ 1,382 $ 45 $ 7,223 $ 8,650 Vesting of restricted common stock 3 — — — — — Exercise of options to purchase common stock 2 — 32 — — 32 Tax payments related to net share settlements on equity awards — — (4) — — (4) Issuance of common stock under employee stock purchase plan — — 10 — — 10 Stock-based compensation — — 224 — — 224 Other comprehensive loss, net of tax — — — (26) — (26) Net loss — — — — (2,125) (2,125) Balance at June 30, 2026 399 $ — $ 1,644 $ 19 $ 5,098 $ 6,761 Common Stock Additional Paid-In Capital Accumulated Other Comprehensive (Loss) Income Retained Earnings Total Stockholders’ Equity Shares Amount Balance at December 31, 2024 386 $ — $ 866 $ (10) $ 10,045 $ 10,901 Vesting of restricted common stock 3 — — — — — Exercise of options to purchase common stock — — 5 — — 5 Tax payments related to net share settlements on equity awards — — (1) — — (1) Issuance of common stock under employee stock purchase plan — — 12 — — 12 Stock-based compensation — — 245 — — 245 Other comprehensive income, net of tax — — — 33 — 33 Net loss — — — — (1,796) (1,796) Balance at June 30, 2025 389 $ — $ 1,127 $ 23 $ 8,249 $ 9,399 The accompanying notes are an integral part of these unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements.

Stockholders' equity: first-half 2026 loss and share issuance · Dépôt 31/07/2026

Net cash used in operating activities decreased by $800 million, or 41%, during the six months ended June 30, 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, primarily attributable to a change in accrued liabilities and accounts payable of $945 million, largely driven by the $950 million litigation settlement accrual, partially offset by an increase in net loss of $329 million.

Cash flows: operating cash use improvement and settlement accrual · Dépôt 31/07/2026

There were no shares repurchased during the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 or 2025.

Share repurchase programs: no first-half repurchases · Dépôt 31/07/2026

As amended, the Stock Ownership Policy requires that by the fifth anniversary of the original effectiveness date of the policy (i.e., December 31, 2024), or December 31st following the fifth anniversary of an individual becoming subject to the policy (whichever is later), that individual is required to hold a number of shares of Moderna stock equivalent in value to a multiple of the individual’s salary or, in the case of directors, their annual cash retainer, as follows: •CEO: 7 times annual salary •President: 6 times annual salary •Other Executive Committee members: 3 times annual salary •Non-employee Directors: 6 times annual cash retainer In February 2021, the Stock Ownership Policy was revised by the Compensation Committee to provide that only owned shares would count toward satisfaction of the ownership requirement, eliminating credit previously granted for the value of vested but unexercised stock options.

Executive compensation: adopted stock ownership policy · Dépôt 16/03/2026

•Maintained the weighting of performance-based restricted stock units (PSUs), with the CEO PSU mix at 50% and other executives at 33%, tying executive compensation to the long-term achievement of our financial and pipeline expansion objectives, reinforcing our commitment to creating shareholder value.

Executive compensation: maintained performance equity weighting · Dépôt 16/03/2026

•2025 corporate performance resulted in a funding outcome at 170% of target, reflecting exceptional performance against the Company’s corporate objectives.

Executive compensation: 2025 bonus funding outcome · Dépôt 16/03/2026

We looked at pay and performance alignment over two periods as follows: •3-Year Analysis (2023-2025): The Company’s total shareholder return (TSR) performance over the three-year period ending December 31, 2025 was the lowest among peer companies and the total realizable pay for our CEO over the same period was at the 20th percentile.

Executive compensation: three-year realizable pay and shareholder return comparison · Dépôt 16/03/2026

Board Leadership Structure The role of Chairman of the Board is separated from the role of Chief Executive Officer.

Governance: separation of chairman and CEO roles · Dépôt 16/03/2026

48 Moderna 2026 Proxy statement Executive Compensation Governance of Executive Compensation Program Role of the Compensation Committee and the Board The Compensation Committee, which is comprised entirely of independent directors, is responsible for discharging our Board of Directors’ responsibilities relating to compensation of our directors and executives, overseeing our overall compensation structure, policies and programs, and reviewing our processes and procedures for the consideration and determination of director and executive compensation.

Governance: independent compensation committee · Dépôt 16/03/2026

In 2025, the Board’s self-evaluation utilized an independent third party who conducted a survey and individual interviews with each director regarding the Board’s operations before reporting back to full Board of Directors.

Governance: completed externally facilitated 2025 board evaluation · Dépôt 16/03/2026

Audit Committee Pre-Approval of Audit and Permissible Non-Audit Services of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm During 2025 and 2024, all audit and non-audit services by our independent registered public accounting firm were pre-approved by our Audit Committee.

Audit governance: actual pre-approval of audit and non-audit services · Dépôt 16/03/2026

Excluding these expenses, cost of sales and cost of sales as a percentage of net product sales and stand-ready manufacturing revenue decreased by 14% and 72 percentage points, respectively, compared to the same period in 2025, primarily due to lower unutilized manufacturing capacity costs, losses on firm purchase commitments and inventory write-downs, partially offset by higher sales volume.

MD&A: first-quarter 2026 cost improvement excluding settlement expenses · Dépôt 01/05/2026

Net product sales decreased by $20 million, or 18%, primarily due to lower COVID vaccine sales in the United States and South America, partially offset by product deliveries in the United Kingdom.

MD&A: second-quarter 2026 product sales decline · Dépôt 31/07/2026

We believe the manufacturing requirements of different mRNA medicines are similar and that at commercial scale, a portfolio of mRNA medicines will benefit from shared capital expenditures.

Business strategy: management expectation of shared manufacturing capital benefits · Dépôt 20/02/2026

Historique des publications

Historique des publications
VersionMis à jourAvantage concurrentiel
623/10/2026none
519/10/2026none
418/10/2026none
318/10/2026none
218/10/2026none
118/10/2026Indisponible

Sources

Méthode et limites de l’analyse · Comprendre ce concept