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Illumina

NASDAQ: ILMN · USD

Illumina (ILMN) Economic Moat Analysis—

Avantages concurrentiels, preuves datées et risques d’érosion.

Analyse à actualiser

Incertain avantage concurrentiel

Illumina demonstrates a proprietary sequencing franchise, substantial repeat consumables demand and successful NovaSeq X adoption. Its patent portfolio supports a plausible intangible-asset advantage, but the passages do not establish the competitive exclusion or customer switching costs needed to conclude that a durable moat exists. Experienced pricing pressure and longer sales cycles constrain pricing power; partial tariff mitigation through pricing actions demonstrates some flexibility. These are meaningful commercial strengths, but insufficient evidence of a durable moat rather than evidence of an interchangeable, low-barrier business.

Intangible assets

Proprietary sequencing chemistry, patent rights and extensive scientific use support current product differentiation. Their ability to sustain an economic moat remains unestablished.

Durabilité
The patent portfolio disclosed as of December 29, 2024 covers multiple technologies with expirations spanning 2025–2049. Continued NovaSeq X adoption demonstrates commercial relevance, but patent counts and expiration ranges do not establish protection of economically critical features against alternatives.
Concurrents
Comparaison non établie
Risques d’érosion
Realized competitive pricing pressure and lengthened sales cycles show erosion pressure. Alternative technologies address some applications less suited to Illumina. Third-party licenses and the historical settlement payment also demonstrate that proprietary technology does not eliminate dependence on others' rights.
Ce qui invaliderait la thèse
The candidate advantage would be undermined by sustained substitution away from Illumina's platform, falling consumables demand attributable to competitive losses, or loss or circumvention of patents protecting commercially critical features. Evidence of durable exclusion and sustained demand despite comparable alternatives would support upgrading the assessment.
Preuves (6) · Contre-preuves (5)

Évolution depuis la dernière analyse

  • The verdict remains uncertain after re-examination of the supplied catalog. Historical patent coverage strengthens the candidate intangible-asset argument without establishing durable competitive exclusion.
  • All four moat criteria remain null because the evidence does not establish a durable moat; commercial engagement is assessed separately under pricing-power retention.
  • Pricing and management grades remain consistent with the previous assessment, supported by current catalog citations. Organic growth reconciliations confirm that 2026 growth was not solely acquisition-driven, while adjusted quarterly margin deterioration tempers resilience.
  • The previous statement about independent customer switching costs remains unsupported. No named current competitor coverage is established by the supplied competition passages.

Limites de l’analyse

  • Assessment uses only supplied issuer filings and filed releases. Source dates retain dateKind=filed; filing dates are not treated as independent publication or retrieval dates.
  • Competition passages disclose generic categories. Historical litigation counterparties are named elsewhere, but their current competitive position is not established; competitor arrays therefore remain empty.
  • Patent counts and expiration ranges are historical disclosures, not evidence that all rights remain valid, economically critical or effective against substitutes.
  • Scientific publication volume and platform adoption are issuer-reported achievements. They establish use and engagement, without demonstrating network effects, measured switching costs or guaranteed durability.
  • Price realization, customer retention rates, customer-level purchasing cohorts and existing-contract repricing rights are not quantified.
  • The proxy supplies actual compensation and governance disclosures, but individual ownership-policy compliance and final vesting of the 2025 PSU cycle are not established.
  • Shareholder allegations and deferred demands are unresolved matters, not findings of misconduct. Historical regulatory penalties are not treated as outstanding where later passages disclose resolution or withdrawal.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse

Ratios calculés à partir des publications annuelles. Une valeur manquante reste indisponible. Les graphiques détaillés sont accessibles dans les autres onglets.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse
PériodeGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
202169.7%-2.7%—7.4%
202264.8%-91.2%—2.3%
202360.9%-23.7%—6.3%
202465.4%-19.1%—16.2%
202566.1%18.6%—21.4%

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Management—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Sources et méthode

Analyse à actualiser · Mis à jour 19/10/2026 · Version 8

Interprétation IA fondée sur des extraits vérifiés. Les déclarations de l’entreprise et les limites de couverture restent explicites.

Méthode quality-scores-2 : six catégories de même poids. Le score global exige une couverture complète. Les données manquantes ne valent pas zéro. Les évaluations qualitatives sont des interprétations sourcées, pas des probabilités. 1/6 · 23/10/2026

Moat—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Prévisibilité75

Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
25.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
1.55
Positive FCF years (%)
100.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
7.02

Solidité financière—

Missing required inputs: debtFcfGrade, netDebtEbitGrade. Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

interestCoverageGrade
63.55
currentRatioGrade
100.00
Interest coverage (x)
7.99
Current ratio (x)
2.08

Allocation du capital—

Missing required inputs: operatingReturn. Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year average dilution (%)
-1.33
3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
7.74
cashConversionGrade
0.00

Qualité du management—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Preuves

Our DNA sequencing technology is based on our proprietary reversible terminator-based sequencing chemistry, referred to as sequencing by synthesis (SBS) biochemistry.

Business / Sequencing technology · Dépôt 12/02/2026

As of December 29, 2024, excluding GRAIL which was spun-off on June 24, 2024, we owned or had exclusive licenses to 1,337 issued U.S.

Intellectual Property / Rights held as of December 29, 2024 · Dépôt 12/02/2025

Our issued and pending patents cover various aspects of our arrays, assays, oligo synthesis, sequencing technology, instruments, digital microfluidics, software, bioinformatics, and chemical-detection technologies, and our issued patents have terms that expire between 2025 and 2049.

Intellectual Property / Patent coverage and expiration range · Dépôt 12/02/2025

A large and dynamic Illumina user community has published hundreds of thousands of customer-authored scientific papers using our technologies.

Business / Scientific use of Illumina technologies · Dépôt 12/02/2026

Customer adoption remained strong in the third year of the NovaSeq X rollout, with Illumina converting more than 70% of sequencing volume to the platform.

Chair communication / NovaSeq X sequencing-volume conversion · Dépôt 09/04/2026

Financial highlights for YTD 2026 included the following: •Revenue increased 7% in YTD 2026 to $2,251 million compared to $2,100 million in YTD 2025 primarily due to increases in consumables and instruments related to demand for our NovaSeq X instrument.

MD&A / YTD 2026 revenue and NovaSeq X demand · Dépôt 31/07/2026

We have faced, and expect to continue to face, increased pricing pressure from competitors who offer sequencing products and we have experienced lengthened sales cycles with many customers due to competition.

Risk Factors / Experienced competitive pricing pressure and longer sales cycles · Dépôt 12/02/2026

For example, complementary third-party sequencing technologies address use cases to which our products are not as well suited.

Risk Factors / Alternative sequencing applications · Dépôt 12/02/2026

The proprietary positions of companies developing tools for the life sciences, genomics, forensics, agricultural, and pharmaceutical industries, including our proprietary position, generally are uncertain and involve complex legal and factual questions.

Risk Factors / Uncertainty of proprietary positions · Dépôt 12/02/2026

We are party to various exclusive and nonexclusive license agreements and other arrangements with third parties that grant us rights to use key aspects of our sequencing and array technologies, assay methods, chemical detection methods, reagent kits, and scanning equipment.

Intellectual Property / Exclusive and nonexclusive third-party licenses · Dépôt 12/02/2026

We allocated the $325 million payment on a relative fair value basis, resulting in $180 million capitalized as an intangible asset in 2022 for the value of the license, which is amortized over a period of 6.5 years on a straight-line basis, $150 million allocated to the release of past damages claimed, and a $5 million gain for damages awarded to us.

Legal Proceedings / Allocation of historical settlement and license payment · Dépôt 16/02/2024

In 2025, 2024, and 2023, instrument sales represented 11%, 12%, and 16%, respectively, of total consolidated revenue; consumable sales represented 74%, 72%, and 68%, respectively, of total consolidated revenue; and services and other represented 15%, 16%, and 16%, respectively, of total consolidated revenue.

Business / Instrument, consumables and services revenue mix, 2023–2025 · Dépôt 12/02/2026

We have partially mitigated the effects of tariffs through supply-chain optimization, cost measures, and pricing actions, and aim to continue such efforts in the future.

MD&A / Partial tariff mitigation through pricing and other actions · Dépôt 31/07/2026

Revenue increased 7% to $2,251 million and operating margin increased to 20.2% in YTD 2026 as compared to 18.0% in YTD 2025.

MD&A / YTD 2026 revenue and operating-margin results · Dépôt 31/07/2026

Excluding this impact, gross margin decreased primarily due to higher tariff costs, increased sales mix toward lower-margin instruments as compared to higher-margin consumables, the addition of lower-margin SomaLogic revenue, and higher memory chip and freight costs, partially offset by decreases for field service and warranty costs.

MD&A / Gross-margin drivers excluding prior-year impairment · Dépôt 31/07/2026

Most performance obligations are generally satisfied within approximately six months after the contract execution date and primarily consist of instruments, consumables, and instrument service contracts.

Revenue / Typical fulfillment period for performance obligations · Dépôt 31/07/2026

These contracts are believed to be firm as of the balance sheet date; however, these arrangements do allow for early termination with prorated fees.

Revenue / Early termination of development and licensing arrangements · Dépôt 31/07/2026

2026 Proxy Statement • A-1 Table of Contents ITEMIZED RECONCILIATION BETWEEN GAAP AND NON-GAAP DILUTED EARNINGS PER SHARE: Year Ended December 28, 2025 December 29, 2024 % Change GAAP diluted earnings per share $ 5.45 $ 5.61 (3)% Amortization of acquired intangible assets 0.42 0.40 Acquisition-related expenses (b) 0.10 (1.40 ) Transformational initiatives (c) 0.38 0.38 Other (d) 0.14 — Legal contingency and settlement (e) 0.06 (2.87 ) Intangible impairment (f) 0.15 0.02 Other (income) expense, net (g) (2.13 ) 1.86 Provision for income taxes (h) 0.27 0.16 Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (a) $ 4.84 $ 4.16 16% FREE CASH FLOWS (in millions): December 28, 2025 Net cash provided by operating activities $1,079 Purchases of property and equipment (148) Free cash flow (i) $ 931 (a) Non-GAAP operating margin and diluted earnings per share excludes the effects of the pro forma adjustments as detailed above.

Annex A / 2025 operating cash flow and capital expenditures · Dépôt 09/04/2026

9 Table of Contents ILLUMINA, INC. CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS (Unaudited) (In millions) Six Months Ended June 28, 2026 June 29, 2025 Cash flows from operating activities: Net income $ 340 $ 366 Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities: Depreciation expense 102 103 Amortization of intangible assets 37 34 Share-based compensation expense 133 142 Deferred income taxes 18 41 Net losses (gains) on investments 16 (133) Change in fair value of contingent consideration liabilities (32) (32) Intangible impairment — 23 Other 4 9 Changes in operating assets and liabilities: Accounts receivable 92 49 Inventory (31) (28) Prepaid expenses and other current assets (9) 11 Operating lease right-of-use assets and liabilities, net (18) (17) Other assets (72) (3) Accounts payable (2) (26) Accrued liabilities (24) (91) Other long-term liabilities (64) 26 Net cash provided by operating activities 490 474 Cash flows from investing activities: Net purchases of property and equipment (78) (62) Net sales (purchases) of investments 32 (43) Cash paid for acquisitions and intangible assets, net of cash acquired (417) (7) Payments on contingent consideration liabilities (25) — Net cash used in investing activities (488) (112) Cash flows from financing activities: Common stock repurchases, inclusive of excise tax (370) (570) Taxes paid related to net share settlement of equity awards (33) (23) Proceeds from issuance of common stock 24 28 Payments on contingent consideration liabilities (1) (1) Net cash used in financing activities (380) (566) Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents — 11 Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents (378) (193) Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 1,418 1,127 Cash and cash equivalents at end of period $ 1,040 $ 934 See accompanying notes to condensed consolidated financial statements.

Condensed consolidated statements of cash flows / Six months ended June 28, 2026 · Dépôt 31/07/2026

The primary adjustments to net loss included goodwill and intangible impairment of $1,889 million, share-based compensation expense of $370 million, depreciation and amortization expense of $354 million, net loss on strategic investments of $312 million, and property and equipment and right-of-use asset impairment of $46 million, offset by change in fair value of contingent consideration liabilities of $315 million and deferred income taxes of $112 million.

Liquidity and Capital Resources / 2024 impairment and other noncash adjustments · Dépôt 12/02/2025

The Compensation Committee and Board approved both the suspension of the salary increases and the reduction of annual equity awards.

Executive Pay / Approved suspension of salary increases and reduction of equity awards · Dépôt 09/04/2026

Performance Stock Units (PSUs) PSUs vest and are earned based on 3-year Company Relative TSR performance against select companies in the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index and 3-year average achievement of pre-determined operating margin targets at the end of the 3-year period.

Executive Pay / Three-year PSU performance conditions · Dépôt 09/04/2026

Performance Stock Units represent approximately 70% of the overall grant value.

Fiscal 2025 Long-Term Equity Compensation / Actual PSU grant mix · Dépôt 09/04/2026

Performance Goals (in $ millions) Metric (Weight) Threshold Target Maximum Actual % Achievement Revenue (50%) 4,194 4,410 4,691 4,356 88% Payout as a % of Target 50% 100% 200% Non-GAAP operating income(1) (50%) 1,213 1,367 1,522 1,298 66% Payout as a % of Target 25% 100% 200% 2025 Achievement 77% (1) Non-GAAP operating income is a non-GAAP measure, used for VCP purposes, and consists of income (loss) from operations, adjusted for changes in FX, amortization of acquired intangible assets, acquisition-related expenses, legal contingencies and settlements, changes in contingent consideration liabilities, restructuring charges and stock-based compensation expense.

Executive Pay / Actual 2025 incentive achievement and metric adjustments · Dépôt 09/04/2026

All our directors stand for election to one-year terms.

Corporate Governance / Annual director terms · Dépôt 09/04/2026

All of the standing Board committees are composed solely of non-employee, independent directors.

Corporate Governance / Independent standing committees · Dépôt 09/04/2026

No executive officer may participate in or be present during any deliberations or determinations of the Compensation Committee regarding his or her compensation.

Compensation Committee / Executive exclusion from own-pay deliberations · Dépôt 09/04/2026

On February 4, 2026, the Board unanimously determined that it was in the best interest of the Company and its shareholders to continue to defer a final decision on the demand.

Legal Proceedings / Continued deferral of shareholder demand · Dépôt 31/07/2026

6 Illumina, Inc. Results of Operations - Non-GAAP (unaudited) TABLE 1: RECONCILIATION OF REVENUE GROWTH: Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 28, 2026 June 28, 2026 Revenue growth 9.5 % 7.2 % Impact of acquisitions (2.1) % (1.9) % Impact of currency exchange rates (0.9) % (1.4) % Organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) (a) 6.5 % 3.9 % Impact of China 1.6 % 1.9 % ROW organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) (a) 8.1 % 5.8 % TABLE 2: RECONCILIATION OF GAAP AND NON-GAAP DILUTED EARNINGS PER SHARE: Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 28, 2026 June 29, 2025 June 28, 2026 June 29, 2025 GAAP diluted earnings per share $ 1.35 $ 1.49 $ 2.22 $ 2.31 Acquisition-related costs (d) 0.07 0.03 0.23 0.11 Transformational initiatives (e) 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.26 Strategic investment (gain) loss, net (f) (0.15) (0.65) 0.08 (0.85) Intangible impairment — 0.15 — 0.15 Other (g) — — — 0.03 Provision for income taxes (h) 0.01 0.11 (0.13) 0.15 Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (b) $ 1.31 $ 1.19 $ 2.46 $ 2.16 TABLE 3: RECONCILIATION OF GAAP AND NON-GAAP RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AS A PERCENT OF REVENUE: Three Months Ended Six Months Ended (Dollars in millions) June 28, 2026 June 29, 2025 June 28, 2026 June 29, 2025 GAAP gross profit (c) $ 770 66.4 % $ 695 65.6 % $ 1,491 66.2 % $ 1,378 65.6 % Acquisition-related costs (d) 20 1.8 % 16 1.5 % 43 2.0 % 33 1.6 % Transformational initiatives (e) — — % 1 0.1 % — — % 3 0.1 % Intangible impairment — — % 23 2.2 % — — % 23 1.1 % Non-GAAP gross profit (b) $ 790

Results of Operations / Organic growth reconciliation and gross-margin adjustments · Dépôt 30/07/2026

68.2 % $ 735 69.4 % $ 1,534 68.2 % $ 1,437 68.4 % GAAP operating profit $ 245 21.1 % $ 214 20.2 % $ 454 20.2 % $ 378 18.0 % Acquisition-related costs (d) 11 1.0 % 5 0.5 % 35 1.6 % 17 0.8 % Transformational initiatives (e) 4 0.4 % 10 0.9 % 10 0.4 % 41 2.0 % Intangible impairment — — % 23 2.2 % — — % 23 1.1 % Other (g) — — % — — % — — % 5 0.2 % Non-GAAP operating profit (b) $ 260 22.5 % $ 252 23.8 % $ 499 22.2 % $ 464 22.1 % 7 (a)Organic revenue growth adjusts for the impact from acquisitions and currency movements, which is calculated using comparative prior period foreign exchange rates to translate current period revenue, net of the effects of hedges; Rest of World (ROW) organic revenue growth also adjusts for the impact from our China region.

Results of Operations / Adjusted gross and operating margins · Dépôt 30/07/2026

Thaysen); • automatic vesting of the executive’s unvested equity or equity-based awards at 100% achievement; and • certain professional outplacement services consistent with the executive’s position for up to two years following termination.

Change-in-control severance / Equity vesting following covered termination · Dépôt 09/04/2026

Total revenue in 2025 was impacted, across all products and services, by a decrease in revenue in our Greater China region of $65 million, primarily due to our inclusion on the List of Unreliable Entities.

MD&A / Realized 2025 Greater China revenue impact · Dépôt 12/02/2026

Historique des publications

Historique des publications
VersionMis à jourAvantage concurrentiel
823/10/2026uncertain
722/10/2026uncertain
619/10/2026uncertain
519/10/2026uncertain
418/10/2026uncertain
318/10/2026uncertain
218/10/2026uncertain
118/10/2026Indisponible

Sources

Méthode et limites de l’analyse · Comprendre ce concept