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Union Pacific

NYSE: UNP · USD

Union Pacific (UNP) Economic Moat Analysis—

Avantages concurrentiels, preuves datées et risques d’érosion.

Analyse à actualiser

Narrow avantage concurrentiel

Union Pacific's integrated rail franchise, distinctive gateway coverage and recurring realized core pricing gains support a narrow moat based on efficient scale. The advantage is geographic reach rather than demonstrated customer captivity or superior costs versus rivals. Truck and barge competition, capital requirements and regulated pricing constrain its strength. Fuel inflation caused realized margin erosion in second-quarter 2026 despite higher operating income. The Norfolk Southern acquisition remains potential, not a current advantage.

Efficient scale

The existing 32,889-route-mile integrated network connects major ports and inland markets, with access to all six major Mexico gateways that the issuer identifies as unique among railroads. This established geographic coverage, supported by recurring core pricing gains, provides evidence of a current franchise advantage. Efficient scale is an analytical inference from the network and its commercial results; route-level monopoly economics are not established.

Durabilité
The distinctive gateway coverage appears in both 2023 and 2025 disclosures, while core pricing gains continued from 2023 through second-quarter 2026. Maintaining comparable rail infrastructure requires substantial capital. These facts support persistence, but do not demonstrate exceptional durability or quantify replication barriers.
Concurrents
Comparaison non établie
Risques d’érosion
Motor carriers compete across every commodity group and have transit-time advantages; barges compete in selected bulk markets. Alternative sourcing and commodity substitution can bypass the network. Infrastructure spending, service disruption and rate regulation constrain monetization. Second-quarter 2026 fuel inflation demonstrated incomplete short-term margin protection.
Ce qui invaliderait la thèse
Reassess the advantage if comparable alternative routes eliminate the disclosed gateway distinction, or if sustained core price concessions accompany traffic losses to competing modes despite stable underlying customer demand. Persistent service deterioration and loss of business despite continued infrastructure investment would also undermine the franchise thesis.
Preuves (8) · Contre-preuves (6)

Évolution depuis la dernière analyse

  • Changed the previous uncertain verdict to narrow after weighing the specifically disclosed, persistent gateway distinction together with the integrated network and realized pricing across multiple reporting periods. This is a revised interpretation of supplied evidence, not a claim that route-level competitive concentration has been established.
  • Added numerical pricing and management assessments supported by operating results, cash flows and actual proxy disclosures, including realized incentive vesting and board activity.

Limites de l’analyse

  • All evidence is issuer-supplied. Geographic uniqueness is an issuer business disclosure; superior costs, route-level concentration, replacement costs and customer switching costs are not quantified.
  • Competitive passages identify generic transport categories without naming competing companies. Canadian National, Canadian Pacific Kansas City and CSX appear as compensation peers, which does not establish their competitive overlap. Norfolk Southern is identified as the pending acquisition target. Competitor arrays therefore remain empty.
  • Core pricing gains are disclosed repeatedly, but their precise contribution, customer-level concessions, contract duration and repricing rights are not supplied. Average revenue per car also reflects fuel and mix.
  • Customer retention is assessed indirectly from recurring shipment demand, aggregate volumes and service evidence. These passages do not establish customer cohort retention, captivity or a renewal rate.
  • The proxy supplies governance and compensation evidence, but actual executive beneficial holdings and compliance with ownership guidelines are not established by the selected passages. Nominee statistics and annual-meeting proposals do not prove subsequent election or voting outcomes.
  • The latest supplied operating period ends June 30, 2026. Source dates are filing dates, retaining dateKind filed; they are not retrieval dates or evidence of later developments.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse

Ratios calculés à partir des publications annuelles. Une valeur manquante reste indisponible. Les graphiques détaillés sont accessibles dans les autres onglets.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse
PériodeGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
2021—42.8%16.8%28.0%
2022—39.9%17.4%23.1%
2023—37.7%15.5%19.8%
2024—40.1%16.0%24.3%
2025—40.2%16.0%22.4%

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Management—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Sources et méthode

Analyse à actualiser · Mis à jour 19/10/2026 · Version 7

Interprétation IA fondée sur des extraits vérifiés. Les déclarations de l’entreprise et les limites de couverture restent explicites.

Méthode quality-scores-2 : six catégories de même poids. Le score global exige une couverture complète. Les données manquantes ne valent pas zéro. Les évaluations qualitatives sont des interprétations sourcées, pas des probabilités. 3/6 · 22/10/2026

Moat—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Prévisibilité93

Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
75.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
6.50
Positive FCF years (%)
100.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
2.67

Solidité financière35

Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

debtFcfGrade
31.64
netDebtEbitGrade
37.95
interestCoverageGrade
59.29
currentRatioGrade
12.68
Debt / FCF (x)
5.79
Net debt / operating income (x)
3.10
Interest coverage (x)
7.52
Current ratio (x)
0.91

Allocation du capital90

Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year pre-tax operating return (%)
20.42
3-year average dilution (%)
-1.50
3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
0.50
cashConversionGrade
79.78

Qualité du management—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Preuves

Although we provide and analyze revenues by commodity group, we treat the financial results of the Railroad as one segment due to the integrated nature of our rail network.

Item 1, Operations: integrated rail network · Dépôt 06/02/2026

We have 32,889 route miles, connecting Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and Eastern U.S.

Item 1, Operations: route miles · Dépôt 06/02/2026

population centers, operates from all major West Coast and Gulf Coast ports to Eastern gateways, connects with Canada's rail systems, and is the only railroad serving all six major Mexico gateways.

Item 1, General: ports and unique Mexico gateway coverage · Dépôt 06/02/2026

population centers, operates from all major West Coast and Gulf Coast ports to Eastern gateways, connects with Canada's rail systems, and is the only railroad serving all six major Mexico gateways.

Item 1, General: 2023 gateway coverage · Dépôt 09/02/2024

Freight revenues decreased 3% year-over-year to $22.6 billion driven by lower fuel surcharge revenues, negative mix of traffic (decreased lumber shipments and increased short haul rock shipments), and a 1% decrease in volume, partially offset by core pricing gains.

MD&A: 2023 freight revenue, volume and core pricing · Dépôt 09/02/2024

Freight revenues increased 1% year-over-year to $22.8 billion driven by a 3% increase in volumes and core pricing gains, partially offset by lower fuel surcharge revenues and negative mix of traffic (for example, a relative increase in international intermodal shipments, which have a lower ARC).

MD&A: 2024 freight revenue, volume and core pricing · Dépôt 07/02/2025

Freight revenues of $23.2 billion increased 2% from 2024 driven by core pricing gains and a 1% increase in volumes, partially offset by traffic mix (for example, a relative increase in coal and rock shipments, which have a lower ARC, combined with a decline in lumber shipments, which have a higher ARC) and lower fuel surcharge revenues.

MD&A: 2025 freight revenue, volume and core pricing · Dépôt 06/02/2026

Freight revenues increased 12% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025 driven by higher fuel surcharge revenues, 2% carload growth, and core pricing gains, which offset a slightly unfavorable business mix (from an increase in shipments with lower ARC, such as domestic intermodal).

MD&A: second-quarter 2026 freight revenue, volume and core pricing · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Motor carrier competition exists in all three of our commodity groups.

Competition: motor carriers across all commodity groups · Dépôt 06/02/2026

Because of the proximity of our routes to major inland and Gulf Coast waterways, barges can be particularly competitive, especially for grain and bulk commodities in certain areas where we operate.

Competition: barge alternatives · Dépôt 06/02/2026

Motor carriers in particular generally have an advantage over railroads with respect to transit times and timeliness of service.

Competition: motor carrier transit-time advantages · Dépôt 06/02/2026

Additionally, we must build or acquire and maintain our rail system, while trucks, barges, and maritime operators are able to use public rights-of-way maintained by public entities.

Competition: private rail infrastructure versus public rights-of-way · Dépôt 06/02/2026

Many movements face product or geographic competition where our customers can use different products (e.g., natural gas instead of coal, sorghum instead of corn) or commodities from different locations (e.g., grain from states or countries that we do not serve, crude oil from different regions).

Competition: product and geographic substitution · Dépôt 06/02/2026

Operating income increased 9% to $2.8 billion reflecting top-line growth, while the operating ratio of 59.7% deteriorated 0.7 points primarily resulting from the impact of higher fuel prices compared to the second quarter of 2025.

MD&A: operating income growth and fuel-driven operating-ratio deterioration · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Although we currently are able to recover a significant amount of our fuel expenses from our customers through revenues from fuel surcharges, we cannot be certain that we will always be able to mitigate rising or elevated fuel costs through our fuel surcharges.

Financial risks: current fuel surcharge recovery and its limits · Dépôt 06/02/2026

As fuel prices fluctuate, our fuel surcharge programs trail such fluctuations in fuel prices by approximately two months and are from time-to-time a significant source of quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year volatility, particularly in periods of rapidly changing prices.

Financial risks: fuel surcharge timing lag · Dépôt 06/02/2026

The STB has jurisdiction over rates charged on certain regulated rail traffic; common carrier service of regulated traffic; freight car compensation; transfer, extension, or abandonment of rail lines; and acquisition of control of rail common carriers.

Regulation: STB jurisdiction over certain rates and rail services · Dépôt 09/02/2024

•Financial results – Core pricing gains, strong productivity, and 1% volume growth positively impacted our financial results and offset the impact of inflation, negative business mix, and acquisition-related costs.

2025 Business Highlights: pricing and productivity offsetting inflation and other costs · Dépôt 25/03/2026

Compared to 2024, our personal injury rate (the number of reportable injuries for every 200,000 employee-hours worked) of 0.68 improved 24% and our derailment incident rate (the number of reportable derailment incidents per million train miles) of 1.75 improved 19%.

Proxy Summary: realized 2025 injury and derailment improvements · Dépôt 25/03/2026

Highlights of the Company's full year 2025 financial and operational performance include: Reported net income: $7.1 B or $11.98 per diluted share compared to 2024 net income of $6.7 billion or $11.09 per diluted share Adjusted net income*: $6.9 B or $11.66 per diluted share* compared to 2024 adjusted net income* of $6.8 billion or $11.11 per diluted share* Operating revenue: $24.5 B was up 1% driven by core pricing gains and higher volume, partially offset by business mix, reduced fuel surcharge revenue, and lower other revenue Reported operating income: $9.8 B increased 1% from 2024 Adjusted operating income*: $10.0 B increased 2% from adjusted 2024* Reported operating ratio: 59.8% improved 0.1 points from 2024 Adjusted operating ratio*: 59.3% improved 0.6 points from adjusted 2024* Reportable personal injury rate: 0.68 per 200,000 employee-hours improved 24% from 2024 Reportable derailment incident rate: 1.75 improved 19% from 2024 Freight car velocity improved 8% compared to 2024 Average terminal dwell declined 8% compared to 2024 Locomotive productivity improved 3% compared to 2024 driven by improved network fluidity and asset utilization Workforce productivity improved 7% as average daily car miles increased 3% while employees decreased 3% compared to 2024 Service Performance Index (SPI) IMPROVED compared to 2024.

Proxy Summary: 2025 financial, productivity and service results · Dépôt 25/03/2026

Freight car velocity increased 5% and terminal dwell improved 7%.

MD&A: second-quarter 2026 velocity and terminal dwell · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Workforce productivity improved 5% and locomotive productivity improved 1%, demonstrating efficient asset utilization in a strengthening demand environment.

MD&A: second-quarter 2026 workforce and locomotive productivity · Dépôt 23/07/2026

5 Table of Contents Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (Unaudited) Union Pacific Corporation and Subsidiary Companies Millions, for the six months ended June 30, 2026 2025 Operating activities Net income $ 3,694 $ 3,502 Adjustments to reconcile net income to cash provided by operating activities: Depreciation 1,271 1,223 Deferred and other income taxes 93 (123) Other operating activities, net 6 (43) Changes in current assets and liabilities: Accounts receivable, net (270) (21) Materials and supplies (132) (5) Other current assets (26) (49) Accounts payable and other current liabilities 52 (203) Income and other taxes 828 262 Cash provided by operating activities 5,516 4,543 Investing activities Capital investments (1,810) (1,842) Other investing activities, net (254) 3 Cash used in investing activities (2,064) (1,839) Financing activities Dividends paid (1,640) (1,599) Debt repaid (1,506) (409) Share repurchase programs (Note 16) (26) (2,679) Debt issued (Note 14) - 1,995 Other financing activities, net 63 43 Cash used in financing activities (3,109) (2,649) Net change in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash 343 55 Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at beginning of year 1,280 1,028 Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at end of period $ 1,623 $ 1,083 Supplemental cash flow information Non-cash investing and financing activities: Capital investments accrued but not yet paid $ 140 $ 157 Cash paid during the period for: Income taxes, net of refunds $ (236) $ (785) Interest, net of amounts capitalized (638) (610) Reconciliation of cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash to the Condensed Consolidated Statement of Financial Position: Cash and cash equivalents $ 1,614 $ 1,060 Restricted cash equivalents in other current assets 2 18 Restricted cash equivalents in other assets 7 5 Total cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash equivalents per above $ 1,623 $ 1,083 The accompanying notes are an integral part of these unaudited Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows: first-half 2026 spending, financing and cash generation · Dépôt 23/07/2026

[b]As part of the pending acquisition of Norfolk Southern described in Note 18 to the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements, Item 1, we paused our share repurchases.

Equity repurchases: suspension for pending acquisition · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Vena and sixty-seven percent (67%) of the target compensation opportunity provided to the other Named Executive Officers (NEOs) was in the form of long-term incentive (LTI) equity awards ▪2025 LTI awards granted in February consisted of sixty percent (60%) performance stock units and forty percent (40%) stock options •Performance stock unit awards granted in 2025 were based: •two-thirds (2/3) on the average annual return on invested capital (ROIC) for a three-year performance period (Performance Period); and •one-third (1/3) on the Company’s operating income growth (OIG) over the Performance Period as compared to the OIG of the companies in the S&P 100 Industrials Index and the Class I Railroads ▪In 2025, our formula-based annual incentive plan was based: •seventy percent (70%) on the attainment of specified Company financial performance goals (equally weighted between operating income and operating ratio); •twenty percent (20%) on the Company’s performance against pre-established strategic business objectives; •five percent (5%) on the attainment of specified reportable personal injury rate goals; and •five percent (5%) on the attainment of specified reportable derailment rate goals ▪Under our formula-based annual incentive plan, performance for 2025 resulted in a payment of 138% of target for each of the NEOs as a result of achieving above target operating income and operating ratio performance, exceptional safety performance as reflected by both our reportable personal injury rate and reportable derailment rate, as well as meeting or exceeding all strategic scorecard objectives ▪Based on our three-year average ROIC of 15.9% and our relative OIG at the 52nd percentile, performance stock units for the three-year performance period (2023-2025) ending in 2025 vested at 86% of target ▪The Compensation and Talent Committee reviewed and approved changes to our Peer Group in May 2025.

Compensation highlights: actual grants, incentive payments and performance-unit vesting · Dépôt 25/03/2026

2025 Governance Highlights Include: Board Composition ▪Board Nominees are 91% Independent (10 of 11 Board Nominees) ▪Six (6) Diverse Board members/Nominees for Election (55%) Board Refreshment ▪Commitment to Board Refreshment (Seven Director Nominees with tenure of less than 5 years, 64% of Board composition) ▪Board Nominees have average Board Tenure of 5.3 years ▪W Anthony Will was elected to the Board effective January 5, 2026 Board Leadership and Board Committees ▪Independent Board Chairman ▪Four Board Committees - Audit Committee, Compensation and Talent Committee, Corporate Governance, Nominating and Sustainability Committee, and Finance Committee - composed solely of independent directors ▪Transition of Safety and Service Quality Committee responsibilities - safety oversight to the full Board and oversight of service performance to the Finance Committee ▪Executive Sessions of Independent Directors at each Board and Committee Meeting ▪Annual Evaluation of Board and Committee performance Governance Practices and Oversight ▪Annual Election of Directors with Majority Voting Standard ▪“Proxy Access” Right ▪Board Strategic Oversight and Review of Enterprise Risk Management ▪Regular Succession Planning for the CEO and executive management levels ▪Stringent Director (5x cash portion of Annual Retainer within 5 years of joining Board) and Executive Officer (7x Annual Salary for CEO and 4x Salary for other Named Executive Officers) Stock Ownership Guidelines ▪Policy against Pledging and Hedging Company common stock Note: These statistics reflect the tenure and independence of the eleven (11) director nominees.

Governance highlights: independent leadership, committees and ownership policies · Dépôt 25/03/2026

During 2025, the Board met 12 times.

Board meetings: actual 2025 meeting count · Dépôt 25/03/2026

None of the directors attended fewer than 75% of the aggregate number of meetings of the Board and the Committees on which he or she served.

Board meetings: actual director attendance · Dépôt 25/03/2026

Reported operating income of $9,846 and operating ratio of 59.8% are adjusted to exclude $72 million of merger related costs.

Annual Incentive Plan: exclusion of merger-related costs · Dépôt 25/03/2026

Both Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern may be required to pay the other a termination fee of $2.5 billion if the merger agreement is terminated under certain circumstances described in the merger agreement.

Acquisition note: contingent termination fee · Dépôt 23/07/2026

Subject to completion of the mergers, the acquisition is expected to be accounted for as a business combination using the acquisition method of accounting and is currently expected to be completed in 2027.

Acquisition note: conditional expected completion in 2027 · Dépôt 23/07/2026

In determining 2025 target pay opportunities for the NEOs, the Committee considered competitive market information gathered in 2024 from the following Peer Group, which comprised the same 15 companies reviewed in the prior year: Canadian National Canadian Pacific Kansas City CSX Deere & Co.

Compensation discussion: named compensation peers · Dépôt 25/03/2026

At June 30, 2026, outstanding stock options are not subject to performance or market-based vesting conditions.

Stock-based compensation: options lack performance-based vesting conditions · Dépôt 23/07/2026

•Net promoter score exceeded the Company’s set goal by 16 points.

Strategic scorecard: net promoter score relative to internal goal · Dépôt 25/03/2026

Historique des publications

Historique des publications
VersionMis à jourAvantage concurrentiel
722/10/2026narrow
622/10/2026narrow
519/10/2026narrow
418/10/2026uncertain
318/10/2026uncertain
218/10/2026uncertain
118/10/2026Indisponible

Sources

Méthode et limites de l’analyse · Comprendre ce concept