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Chipotle Mexican Grill

NYSE: CMG · USD

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Economic Moat Analysis—

Avantages concurrentiels, preuves datées et risques d’érosion.

Analyse à actualiser

Incertain avantage concurrentiel

Chipotle demonstrates established brand demand, expanding access and realized menu pricing, but the supplied passages do not establish a durable competitive moat. Transactions recovered in early 2026 after declining 2025 comparable sales, while pricing only partly offset rising costs. Digital adoption and restaurant expansion demonstrate convenience and execution without establishing customer lock-in, network effects or a structural cost advantage.

Intangible assets

Chipotle's established brand and differentiated sourcing position support a potential intangible-asset advantage. Positive transactions alongside menu price increases demonstrate current demand, but the evidence does not establish durable superiority over competing restaurants.

Durabilité
The operating history and expanding footprint support persistence of the business. They do not establish how long a competitive advantage could endure. Equipment and Chipotlane benefits are management-reported opportunities without quantified comparative durability.
Concurrents
Comparaison non établie
Risques d’érosion
Competing restaurants offer similar quality, price and convenience propositions. Actual comparable-sales weakness, subsequent sales headwinds and incomplete cost pass-through constrain evidence of brand protection. Food-safety and sourcing exposures could further impair demand or economics.
Ce qui invaliderait la thèse
Persistent comparable-transaction declines across several reporting periods despite stable or lower menu prices, combined with continued deterioration in restaurant economics, would undermine the proposed brand advantage. Demonstrated inability to sustain demand without increasing discounts would also contradict it.
Preuves (7) · Contre-preuves (7)

Évolution depuis la dernière analyse

  • Retained the uncertain moat verdict and null moat grades; current operating evidence establishes demand and pricing outcomes without establishing durable competitive protection.
  • Revalidated all eight previously graded pricing and management criteria against the current catalog; their grades remain unchanged.
  • Removed reliance on previous-analysis assertions as evidence. Explicitly distinguished equipment and Chipotlane claims from quantified comparative proof, and incorporated the disclosed change-in-control vesting limitation.

Limites de l’analyse

  • All supplied sources are issuer filings or issuer releases. Reported operating results and disclosed policies support assessments, while qualitative claims of competitive superiority remain management assertions.
  • Competition passages identify generic restaurant categories rather than named rivals. Named compensation peers are not established as competitors, so competitor arrays are empty.
  • The catalog provides no comparative market-share, customer-cohort retention, price-elasticity or structural unit-cost evidence. Digital sales include third-party channels and do not establish proprietary customer lock-in.
  • The source dates retain dateKind filed. Latest supplied operating results cover June 30, 2026; no subsequent operating performance is established.
  • Actual ownership compliance is disclosed, but the supplied ownership-table passages do not establish executives' individual economic stakes. Governance mechanisms do not establish exceptional oversight outcomes.
  • Falsification conditions are prospective analytical tests, not predictions or reported events.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse

Ratios calculés à partir des publications annuelles. Une valeur manquante reste indisponible. Les graphiques détaillés sont accessibles dans les autres onglets.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse
PériodeGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
2021—10.7%44.7%11.1%
2022—13.4%51.0%9.8%
2023—15.8%52.7%12.4%
2024—16.9%54.1%13.4%
2025—16.2%54.9%12.1%

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Management—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Sources et méthode

Analyse à actualiser · Mis à jour 19/10/2026 · Version 8

Interprétation IA fondée sur des extraits vérifiés. Les déclarations de l’entreprise et les limites de couverture restent explicites.

Méthode quality-scores-2 : six catégories de même poids. Le score global exige une couverture complète. Les données manquantes ne valent pas zéro. Les évaluations qualitatives sont des interprétations sourcées, pas des probabilités. 2/6 · 23/10/2026

Moat—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Prévisibilité100

Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
100.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
3.92
Positive FCF years (%)
100.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
1.22

Solidité financière—

Missing required inputs: interestCoverageGrade. Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

debtFcfGrade
100.00
netDebtEbitGrade
100.00
currentRatioGrade
38.77
Debt / FCF (x)
0.00
Net debt / operating income (x)
-0.18
Current ratio (x)
1.23

Allocation du capital99

Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year pre-tax operating return (%)
70.73
3-year average dilution (%)
-1.34
3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
1.14
cashConversionGrade
97.28

Qualité du management—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Preuves

Our first Chipotle restaurant opened in Denver, Colorado in 1993.

Business: restaurant operating history · Dépôt 04/02/2026

In Chipotle-owned restaurants, we strive to serve only animal products that are raised in accordance with criteria we have established to improve sustainability and promote animal welfare, and without the use of non-therapeutic antibiotics or added growth hormones.

Business: sourcing standards · Dépôt 04/02/2026

The increase is attributable to a 1.2% increase in average check and a 1.0% increase in transactions.

MD&A: second-quarter average check and transactions · Dépôt 31/07/2026

Digital sales represented 38.3% of total food and beverage revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase from 35.5% for the three months ended June 30, 2025.

MD&A: digital sales adoption · Dépôt 31/07/2026

These increases were partially offset by a 0.4% benefit from menu price increases.

MD&A: realized menu-pricing benefit to labor cost ratio · Dépôt 31/07/2026

The results in restaurants with the new equipment are compelling with higher taste-of-food and overall guest satisfaction scores, improved throughput and a meaningful increase in comparable sales.

Shareholder letter: management's equipment-performance claims · Dépôt 28/04/2026

Chipotlanes continue to perform well and are helping enhance guest access and convenience, as well as increase new restaurant sales, margins and returns.

Quarterly release: management's Chipotlane-performance claims · Dépôt 29/07/2026

Competition The fast-casual, quick-service, and casual dining segments of the restaurant industry are highly competitive with respect to, among other things, taste, price, food quality and presentation, customer service, location, convenience, brand reputation, and cleanliness and ambience of each restaurant.

Business: competitive dimensions · Dépôt 04/02/2026

Many of our competitors also offer dine-in, carry-out, online, catering, and delivery services.

Business: competing service channels · Dépôt 04/02/2026

Among our main competitors are restaurant formats that claim to serve higher quality ingredients without artificial flavors, colors and preservatives, and that serve food quickly and at a reasonable price.

Business: competitors' ingredient-quality and value propositions · Dépôt 04/02/2026

Comparable restaurant sales decreased 1.7%.

Compensation discussion: 2025 comparable-sales decline · Dépôt 28/04/2026

We have recently experienced low-single-digit headwinds to our comparable restaurant sales trends that we believe are tied to that environment as customers respond to, among other things, recent U.S.

MD&A: recently experienced comparable-sales headwinds · Dépôt 31/07/2026

Labor Costs Three months ended June 30, Percentage Six months ended June 30, Percentage 2026 2025 change 2026 2025 change (dollars in millions) (dollars in millions) Labor costs $ 836.5 $ 756.3 10.6 % $ 1,641.9 $ 1,474.5 11.4 % As a percentage of total revenue 25.0 % 24.7 % 0.3 % 25.5 % 24.8 % 0.7 % Labor costs increased 0.3% as a percentage of total revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2026 compared to the three months ended June 30, 2025.

MD&A: second-quarter and first-half labor cost ratios · Dépôt 31/07/2026

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC. RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Restaurant Level Operating Margin (in thousands) (unaudited) Three months ended June 30, 2026 Percent of total revenue 2025 Percent of total revenue Income from operations $ 525,595 15.7 % $ 559,057 18.2 % Non-GAAP Adjustments General and administrative expenses 190,471 5.7 172,151 5.6 Depreciation and amortization 98,327 2.9 90,945 3.0 Pre-opening costs 16,364 0.5 10,610 0.3 Impairment, closure costs, and asset disposals 13,808 0.4 5,467 0.2 Total non-GAAP Adjustments 318,970 9.5 279,173 9.1 Restaurant level operating margin $ 844,565 25.2 % $ 838,230 27.4 %

Quarterly release: operating and restaurant-level margin reconciliation · Dépôt 29/07/2026

The increase is attributable to an increase in transactions of 0.6%, partially offset by a 0.1% decrease in average check.

MD&A: first-quarter transactions and average check · Dépôt 30/04/2026

Increases in ingredient prices could adversely affect our results if we choose for competitive or other reasons not to increase menu prices at the same rate at which ingredient costs increase, or if menu price increases result in guest resistance.

Market risk: menu-pricing discretion and guest resistance · Dépôt 31/07/2026

Revenue Recognition We generally recognize revenue, net of discounts and incentives, when payment is tendered at the point of sale.

Accounting policies: point-of-sale revenue recognition · Dépôt 04/02/2026

In addition, the delivery business has been consolidating and may continue to consolidate, which may give third-party delivery companies more leverage in negotiating the terms and pricing of contracts, which in turn could negatively impact our profits from this channel.

Risk factors: potential delivery-platform bargaining leverage · Dépôt 08/02/2024

Our total capital expenditures for 2025 were $666.3 million.

Liquidity and capital resources: actual 2025 capital expenditures · Dépôt 04/02/2026

Cash provided by operating activities was $2.1 billion for the year ended December 31, 2025, compared to $2.1 billion for the year ended December 31, 2024.

Liquidity and capital resources: 2025 operating cash flow · Dépôt 04/02/2026

During the six months ended June 30, 2026 and 2025, we repurchased $1,331,572 and $989,580 of stock at an average price of $34.35 and $52.32, respectively.

Shareholders' equity: first-half 2026 repurchases · Dépôt 31/07/2026

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS (in thousands) (unaudited) Six months ended June 30, 2026 2025 Operating activities Net income $ 706,371 $ 822,726 Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities: Depreciation and amortization 195,045 178,156 Deferred income tax provision 37,805 (9,890) Impairment, closure costs, and asset disposals 22,981 11,056 Provision for credit losses (335) (1,247) Stock-based compensation expense 54,518 75,150 Other 906 7,622 Changes in operating assets and liabilities: Accounts receivable 54,640 39,946 Inventory 2,773 8,493 Prepaid expenses and other current assets (1,809) (3,606) Operating lease assets 164,061 150,957 Other assets 3,354 (362) Accounts payable 37,130 12,360 Accrued payroll and benefits 36,433 (24,689) Accrued liabilities 45,300 2,126 Unearned revenue (12,652) (25,555) Income tax payable/receivable 111,882 (13,433) Operating lease liabilities (127,943) (113,450) Other long-term liabilities 1,543 2,042 Net cash provided by operating activities 1,332,003 1,118,402 Investing activities Purchases of leasehold improvements, property and equipment (397,601) (305,395) Purchases of investments (5,520) (6,500) Maturities of investments 349,766 319,962 Net cash (used in)/provided by investing activities (53,355) 8,067 Financing activities Repurchase of common stock (1,354,905) (997,055) Tax withholding on stock-based compensation awards (49,397) (33,319) Other financing activities 2,798 1,540 Net cash used in financing activities (1,401,504) (1,028,834) Effect of exchange rate changes on cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash

Cash-flow statement: first-half operating cash, investment and financing outlays · Dépôt 29/07/2026

The increase was primarily due to timing of tax-related payments, and to a lesser extent other changes in non-tax operating assets and liabilities.

Liquidity and capital resources: tax timing contribution to cash-flow growth · Dépôt 31/07/2026

As of June 30, 2026, we had $810.5 million in cash and cash equivalents, current and long-term investments, and restricted cash, of which the majority are interest bearing.

Market risk: June 2026 cash and investments · Dépôt 31/07/2026

As of December 31, 2025, we had $1.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, current and long-term investments, and restricted cash, of which the substantial majority are interest bearing.

Market risk: December 2025 cash and investments · Dépôt 04/02/2026

Key features: Our LTI mix for 2025 was 60% PSUs with a three-year performance period, 20% seven-year term stock only stock appreciation rights (“SOSARs”) that vest in two equal installments on the 2nd and 3rd anniversaries of the grant date, and 20% in either SOSARs or restricted stock units (“RSUs”), at the executive’s election, that vest in two equal installments on the 2nd and 3rd anniversaries of the grant date.

Compensation discussion: actual 2025 long-term incentive structure · Dépôt 28/04/2026

2025 PSU Awards For the 2025 PSU awards, the Compensation, People and Culture Committee maintained the two metrics used in the 2024 PSU awards: (i) 3-year cumulative base RCF Dollars, weighted 90%, and (ii) total number of new restaurant openings (“NROs”), weighted 10%, both measured over the 3-year performance period of January 1, 2025 – December 31, 2027.

Compensation discussion: 2025 PSU metrics and performance period · Dépôt 28/04/2026

As shown in the chart below, in 2025 Chipotle’s performance was below threshold for CRS and RCF Margin %, and above target for SARs, which resulted in an overall CPF of 40%.

Compensation discussion: below-threshold outcomes and reduced performance factor · Dépôt 28/04/2026

As of December 31, 2025, all of our NEOs who were employed by us at year end satisfied or exceeded these requirements.

Compensation discussion: year-end executive ownership compliance · Dépôt 28/04/2026

No hedging, pledging or short sales of Chipotle common stock and no holding Chipotle common stock in margin accounts by executive officers or directors.

Compensation policies: hedging, pledging and margin-account restrictions · Dépôt 28/04/2026

Chipotle’s Executive Compensation Recovery Policy requires the Board to pursue reimbursement of incentive-based compensation paid or awarded to an executive officer if the payment or award was based on the achievement of certain financial results that subsequently were the subject of a restatement, and a lower payment or award would have been made to the executive officer based upon the restated financial results.

Compensation discussion: mandatory restatement-related recovery policy · Dépôt 28/04/2026

In 2025, we opened 334 new company-owned restaurants, with 257 locations including a Chipotlane, and 11 international partner-operated restaurants, which brings our total international partner-operated restaurants to 14.

Business achievements: actual 2025 restaurant openings · Dépôt 28/04/2026

During the second quarter we opened 100 company-owned restaurants, of which 80 included a Chipotlane, and one international partner-operated restaurant.

Quarterly release: actual second-quarter 2026 openings · Dépôt 29/07/2026

Board Leadership Structure Our current Board leadership structure consists of an independent Chairman of the Board, a position held by Scott Maw; Board committees led by independent directors; executive sessions of the directors at each regular Board meeting; and active oversight by all directors.

Corporate governance: independent chairman and committee leadership · Dépôt 28/04/2026

All directors stand for election on an annual basis.

Governance summary: annual director elections · Dépôt 28/04/2026

Directors are elected by a majority of votes cast in uncontested elections and any director who does not receive a majority of votes cast is required to submit his or her resignation for consideration by the Board.

Governance summary: majority voting and resignation requirement · Dépôt 28/04/2026

Accordingly, our Board has adopted written policies and procedures requiring the Audit & Risk Committee to approve in advance, with limited exceptions, any transactions in which any person or entity in the categories named above has any material interest, whether direct or indirect, unless the value of all such transactions in which a related person has an interest during a year total less than $120,000.

Corporate governance: related-person transaction approval procedures · Dépôt 28/04/2026

In addition, all unvested LTI held by the named executive officer at the time of termination would vest in full, with PSUs vesting at the greater of (a) target or (b) actual performance, as determined based on the company’s performance through the date of the change in control.

Compensation arrangements: change-in-control PSU vesting terms · Dépôt 28/04/2026

The 2025 annual PSU awards will only pay out to the extent the two performance metrics (three-year cumulative base restaurant cash flow (“RCF”) dollars and total number of new restaurant openings (“NROs”)) equal or exceed the predetermined threshold performance levels over the 2025 through 2027 performance period.

Compensation tables: 2025 PSU threshold conditions · Dépôt 28/04/2026

Operating margin was 16.2%, a decrease from 16.9% in 2024.

Compensation discussion: 2025 operating-margin decline · Dépôt 28/04/2026

Historique des publications

Historique des publications
VersionMis à jourAvantage concurrentiel
823/10/2026uncertain
722/10/2026uncertain
619/10/2026uncertain
519/10/2026uncertain
418/10/2026uncertain
318/10/2026uncertain
218/10/2026uncertain
118/10/2026Indisponible

Sources

Méthode et limites de l’analyse · Comprendre ce concept