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Costco Wholesale

NASDAQ: COST · USD

Costco Wholesale (COST) Economic Moat Analysis—

Avantages concurrentiels, preuves datées et risques d’érosion.

Analyse à actualiser

Narrow avantage concurrentiel

Costco demonstrates a narrow moat through its membership value proposition and brand loyalty: high multiyear renewals coexist with growing paid membership and realized membership fee increases. Kirkland Signature adds differentiation. Pricing power is clearer in membership fees than merchandise. Improved inventory turns and supplier terms demonstrate execution, but comparative cost superiority is unproven. Renewals stabilized in 2026 below 2024 levels, while full-year core merchandise margins improved despite quarterly pressure.

Intangible assets

Costco's membership franchise supports repeat demand and the ability to raise membership fees while maintaining high renewals. Kirkland Signature's growing sales contribution reinforces differentiation, although its separate contribution to retention is unquantified.

Durabilité
High renewals across 2024–2026, paid membership growth and recognized revenue from the September 2024 fee increase support a current, repeatable advantage. The supplied history supports a narrow moat, without establishing exceptional long-term durability.
Concurrents
Comparaison non établie
Risques d’érosion
Renewals remain below 2024 levels, and digitally acquired members renew less frequently on average. Vigorous price and convenience competition, easier comparison shopping and potential changes from AI could weaken perceived membership value. Kirkland product quality and acceptance remain important; disclosed litigation allegations do not establish actual product defects or lost loyalty.
Ce qui invaliderait la thèse
The thesis would fail if successive renewal cohorts showed sustained deterioration alongside stalled paid membership growth, or if future fee increases required concessions that eliminated incremental fee income. Sustained loss of Kirkland acceptance and sales contribution would weaken the supporting brand advantage.
Preuves (13) · Contre-preuves (7)

Évolution depuis la dernière analyse

  • Retain the previous narrow verdict; membership loyalty and realized fee increases remain the best-supported advantage.
  • Correct the erosion narrative: fiscal 2026 renewal rates matched fiscal 2025 at 92.3% in the U.S. and Canada and 89.8% worldwide, although both remained below fiscal 2024.
  • Qualify merchandise margin pressure: third-quarter core margin on core sales fell nine basis points, but the full-year measure increased 15 basis points. A declining contribution to total-sales margin does not establish deterioration in core merchandise economics.
  • Add assessments grounded in the supplied proxy's actual incentive, ownership and governance disclosures; do not infer alignment from management reputation.

Limites de l’analyse

  • Only supplied passages were used. Source dates are filing dates: filing-1 October 7, 2026; filing-2 October 8, 2025; filing-3 October 9, 2024; filing-4 June 3, 2026; filing-5 March 11, 2026; filing-6 December 4, 2025.
  • Competitive passages disclose generic categories without naming competitors. Competitor arrays are therefore empty; relative cost, pricing and retention superiority cannot be established.
  • Operating results support the assessment, but most business disclosures are issuer-reported. Management's pricing-authority philosophy is an assertion, not independent proof of the lowest prices.
  • High renewals demonstrate loyalty rather than contractual lock-in or customer dependence. Renewal calculations are trailing, and the passages do not isolate the fee increase's causal effect on retention.
  • Kirkland's growing sales contribution supports differentiation, but separate brand retention, market share and customer willingness to pay are unquantified.
  • The compensation evidence concerns disclosed fiscal 2025 arrangements and subsequent interim awards; ownership compliance is specifically dated to calendar 2024 year-end. Later compensation and ownership outcomes are not established.
  • Full membership cancellation, refund and repricing provisions are absent. Enacted fee changes demonstrate some pricing discretion, without proving unrestricted contractual freedom.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse

Ratios calculés à partir des publications annuelles. Une valeur manquante reste indisponible. Les graphiques détaillés sont accessibles dans les autres onglets.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse
PériodeGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
202212.1%3.4%37.6%1.5%
202312.3%3.3%34.6%2.8%
202412.6%3.6%37.5%2.6%
202512.8%3.8%38.5%2.8%
202612.8%3.9%41.4%3.1%

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Management—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Sources et méthode

Analyse à actualiser · Mis à jour 19/10/2026 · Version 7

Interprétation IA fondée sur des extraits vérifiés. Les déclarations de l’entreprise et les limites de couverture restent explicites.

Méthode quality-scores-2 : six catégories de même poids. Le score global exige une couverture complète. Les données manquantes ne valent pas zéro. Les évaluations qualitatives sont des interprétations sourcées, pas des probabilités. 3/6 · 23/10/2026

Moat—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Prévisibilité100

Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
100.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
1.88
Positive FCF years (%)
100.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
0.54

Solidité financière81

Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

debtFcfGrade
100.00
netDebtEbitGrade
100.00
interestCoverageGrade
100.00
currentRatioGrade
24.79
Debt / FCF (x)
0.66
Net debt / operating income (x)
-1.20
Interest coverage (x)
80.59
Current ratio (x)
1.06

Allocation du capital99

Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year pre-tax operating return (%)
51.98
3-year average dilution (%)
0.01
3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
0.31
cashConversionGrade
96.58

Qualité du management—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Preuves

At the end of 2024, our member renewal rates were 92.9% in the U.S.

MD&A / Membership Fees / 2024 renewal rates · Dépôt 09/10/2024

and Canada and 90.5% worldwide. Renewal rates benefited from higher penetration of Executive members.

MD&A / Membership Fees / worldwide renewals and Executive membership · Dépôt 09/10/2024

At the end of 2025, our member renewal rates were 92.3% in the U.S.

MD&A / Membership Fees / 2025 renewal rates · Dépôt 08/10/2025

and Canada and 89.8% worldwide. Renewal rates were negatively impacted by a higher number of memberships sold online, 26 Table of Contents including through digital promotions, entering the renewal rate calculation.

MD&A / Membership Fees / worldwide renewals and digital acquisition · Dépôt 08/10/2025

At the end of 2026, member renewal rates were 92.3% in the U.S.

MD&A / Membership Fees / 2026 renewal rates · Dépôt 07/10/2026

and Canada and 89.8% worldwide. 26 Table of Contents As previously reported, we increased annual membership fees in the U.S.

MD&A / Membership Fees / 2026 worldwide renewal rate · Dépôt 07/10/2026

Membership Fees 12 Weeks Ended 36 Weeks Ended May 10, 2026 May 11, 2025 May 10, 2026 May 11, 2025 Membership fees $ 1,373 $ 1,240 $ 4,057 $ 3,599 Total paid members (000s) 82,900 79,600 — — Total cardholders (000s) 148,500 142,800 — — Membership fee revenue increased 11% and 13% in the third quarter and first thirty-six weeks of 2026, driven by new member sign-ups, membership fee increases and upgrades to Executive Membership.

MD&A / Membership Fees / paid membership and fee revenue growth · Dépôt 03/06/2026

Effective September 1, 2024, we increased our membership fees in the U.S.

MD&A / Membership Fees / fee increase effective date · Dépôt 09/10/2024

and Canada for Gold Star (individual), Business, and Business affiliates to $65 per year.

MD&A / Membership Fees / annual membership price · Dépôt 09/10/2024

The Executive membership fee increased from $120 to $130 (membership fee of $65, plus Executive upgrade of $65), and the maximum annual 2% reward associated with the Executive Membership increased from $1,000 to $1,250.

MD&A / Membership Fees / Executive fee and reward changes · Dépôt 09/10/2024

Membership Fees 2026 2025 2024 Membership fees $ 5,907 $ 5,323 $ 4,828 Membership fee revenue increased 11% in 2026, driven by new member sign-ups, membership fee increases, and upgrades to Executive memberships.

MD&A / Membership Fees / 2024–2026 revenue and growth drivers · Dépôt 07/10/2026

The fee income increase accounted for approximately 30% and 40% of membership income growth during 2026 and 2025.

MD&A / Membership Fees / realized contribution from fee increases · Dépôt 07/10/2026

These products also generally carry higher margins than national brand products and represent a growing portion of our overall sales.

Risk Factors / Kirkland Signature / sales contribution and margins · Dépôt 07/10/2026

These members renew at a slightly lower rate on average.

MD&A / Membership Fees / lower renewal propensity of online members · Dépôt 08/10/2025

We compete for members, employees, sites, products and services, and in other important respects with a wide range of local, regional and national wholesalers and retailers, both in the United States and in foreign countries, including other warehouse-club operators, supermarkets, supercenters, online retailers, gasoline stations, pharmacies, hard discounters, department and specialty stores and operators selling a single category or narrow range of merchandise or services.

Risk Factors / competitive categories · Dépôt 07/10/2026

Such retailers and warehouse club operators compete vigorously and in a variety of ways, including pricing, selection and availability, services, location, convenience, store hours, and the attractiveness, and ease of use of websites and mobile applications.

Risk Factors / competition on price, selection and convenience · Dépôt 07/10/2026

The evolution of retailing in online and mobile channels has improved the ability of customers to comparison shop, which has enhanced competition.

Risk Factors / comparison shopping and competition · Dépôt 07/10/2026

AI may also present inaccurate pricing or product data, or fail to capture the full value of our membership offering, impacting member purchasing decisions by prioritizing immediate or inaccurate price comparison or logistics over member loyalty.

Risk Factors / potential AI effects on membership value perception · Dépôt 07/10/2026

If the Kirkland Signature brand experiences a loss of member acceptance or confidence, our sales and gross margin results could be adversely affected.

Risk Factors / potential loss of Kirkland acceptance · Dépôt 07/10/2026

2:25-cv-02277 (W.D. Wash.). Plaintiffs allege that the Company's Kirkland Signature tequilas are labeled “100% de Agave” but contain alcohol derived from non-agave sugars.

Legal Proceedings / Kirkland tequila labeling allegations · Dépôt 07/10/2026

We do not focus in the short-term on maximizing prices charged, but instead seek to maintain what we believe is a perception among our members of our “pricing authority” – consistently providing the most competitive values.

MD&A / management's pricing philosophy · Dépôt 03/06/2026

Our investments in merchandise pricing may include reducing prices on merchandise to drive sales or meet competition and holding prices steady despite cost increases instead of passing the increases on to our members, negatively impacting gross margin and gross margin as a percentage of net sales (gross margin percentage) in the near term.

MD&A / pricing investments and possible margin effects · Dépôt 03/06/2026

Gross Margin 2026 2025 2024 Net sales $ 297,247 $ 269,912 $ 249,625 Less merchandise costs 264,279 239,886 222,358 Gross margin $ 32,968 $ 30,026 $ 27,267 Gross margin percentage 11.09 % 11.12 % 10.92 % Gross margin percentage decreased three basis points.

MD&A / Gross Margin / reported annual results · Dépôt 07/10/2026

Excluding the impact of gasoline price inflation on net sales, gross margin percentage was 11.22%, an increase of 10 basis points.

MD&A / Gross Margin / gasoline-adjusted annual result · Dépôt 07/10/2026

The gross margin in core merchandise categories when expressed as a percentage of their own sales increased 15 basis points.

MD&A / Gross Margin / core merchandise margin on own sales · Dépôt 07/10/2026

22 Table of Contents The gross margin in core merchandise categories, when expressed as a percentage of core merchandise sales (rather than total net sales), decreased nine basis points.

MD&A / Gross Margin / third-quarter core merchandise margin on own sales · Dépôt 03/06/2026

IEEPA tariff refunds, net of investment in price reductions for members, positively impacted gross margin by three basis points.

MD&A / Gross Margin / tariff refunds and actual member price reductions · Dépôt 07/10/2026

Net cash provided by operating activities totaled $15,817 in 2026, compared to $13,335 in 2025.

MD&A / operating cash flow / 2026 and 2025 · Dépôt 07/10/2026

The latter was a result of faster inventory turns and improved payment terms with suppliers.

MD&A / operating cash flow / inventory turns and supplier terms · Dépôt 07/10/2026

In 2026, we spent $6,435 on capital expenditures, and it is our current intention to spend approximately $7,500 during fiscal 2027.

MD&A / capital expenditures / actual 2026 spending and 2027 intention · Dépôt 07/10/2026

Highlights for 2026 include: •We opened 28 new warehouses, including three relocations, for a total of 25 net new warehouses: 18 in the U.S., five in our Canadian segment, and two in our Other International segment, compared to 27 new warehouses, including three relocations, in 2025;

MD&A / 2026 highlights / actual warehouse openings · Dépôt 07/10/2026

Earnings Total Equity Shares (000’s) Amount BALANCE AT SEPTEMBER 3, 2023 442,793 $ 2 $ 7,340 $ (1,805) $ 19,521 $ 25,058 Net income — — — — 7,367 7,367 Foreign-currency translation adjustment and other, net — — — (23) — (23) Stock-based compensation — — 822 — — 822 Release of vested restricted stock units (RSUs), including tax effects 1,337 — (315) — — (315) Repurchases of common stock (1,004) — (18) — (680) (698) Cash dividends declared — — — — (8,589) (8,589) BALANCE AT SEPTEMBER 1, 2024 443,126 2 7,829 (1,828) 17,619 23,622 Net income — — — — 8,099 8,099 Foreign-currency translation adjustment and other, net — — — 58 — 58 Stock-based compensation — — 864 — — 864 Release of vested RSUs, including tax effects 1,054 — (393) — — (393) Repurchases of common stock (943) — (18) — (885) (903) Cash dividend declared — — — — (2,183) (2,183) BALANCE AT AUGUST 31, 2025 443,237 2 8,282 (1,770) 22,650 29,164 Net income — — — — 9,226 9,226 Foreign-currency translation adjustment and other, net — — — 150 — 150 Stock-based compensation — — 929 — — 929 Release of vested RSUs, including tax effects 920 — (361) — — (361) Repurchases of common stock (891) — (20) — (827) (847) Cash dividend declared — — — — (2,458) (2,458) BALANCE AT AUGUST 30, 2026 443,266 $ 2 $ 8,830 $ (1,620) $ 28,591 $ 35,803 The accompanying notes are an integral part of these consolidated financial statements.

Consolidated Statements of Equity / earnings, dividends, equity issuance and repurchases · Dépôt 07/10/2026

The criteria for the fiscal 2025 performance-based grants were (versus fiscal 2024) a 3% increase in net sales or a 2% increase in pre-tax income (both adjusted for changes in foreign currencies).

Compensation Discussion and Analysis / fiscal 2025 performance conditions · Dépôt 04/12/2025

Accordingly, the executive officers who received performance-based grants earned all of the RSUs granted, subject to time-based and long-service vesting.

Compensation Discussion and Analysis / earned RSUs and remaining vesting conditions · Dépôt 04/12/2025

For awards vested on October 22, 2025, all other Named Executive Officers received 100% long-service vesting.

Compensation Discussion and Analysis / actual long-service vesting · Dépôt 04/12/2025

Stock Ownership Requirements Executive officers are required by the end of each calendar year to own and retain shares of Company common stock representing in value at least three times (seven times for the Chief Executive Officer) the base salary of the officer in effect at the beginning of the fiscal year.

Compensation Discussion and Analysis / executive stock ownership requirements · Dépôt 04/12/2025

All executive officers were in compliance at the end of calendar 2024.

Compensation Discussion and Analysis / ownership compliance at calendar 2024 year-end · Dépôt 04/12/2025

Hedging and Pledging Policies The Corporate Governance Guidelines prohibit transactions involving hedging of the Company's equity securities by directors, officers, and employees and prohibit pledging of the Company's equity securities by directors and executive officers.

Compensation Discussion and Analysis / hedging and pledging prohibitions · Dépôt 04/12/2025

Directors are elected annually for terms expiring at the next annual meeting of shareholders.

Election of Directors / annual director terms · Dépôt 04/12/2025

Our bylaws provide for proxy access shareholder nominations for director candidates by eligible shareholders.

Corporate Governance / shareholder proxy access · Dépôt 04/12/2025

Currently the positions of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer are filled separately.

Board Structure / separate chair and CEO positions · Dépôt 04/12/2025

The Audit Committee met eight times during fiscal 2025.

Committees of the Board / actual Audit Committee meetings · Dépôt 04/12/2025

We also have audited, in accordance with the standards of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (United States) (PCAOB), the Company’s internal control over financial reporting as of August 30, 2026, based on criteria established in Internal Control – Integrated Framework (2013) issued by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission, and our report dated October 6, 2026 expressed an unqualified opinion on the effectiveness of the Company’s internal control over financial reporting.

Independent auditor report / unqualified opinion on financial reporting controls · Dépôt 07/10/2026

Sales increased $17,136 or 8% in core merchandise categories, increasing in all categories.

MD&A / net sales / actual core merchandise growth · Dépôt 07/10/2026

We opened 12 new warehouses, including two relocations, in the first half of 2026, and plan to open 21 additional new warehouses, including three relocations, in the remainder of fiscal 2026.

MD&A / capital expenditure plans / earlier fiscal 2026 opening expectations · Dépôt 11/03/2026

Historique des publications

Historique des publications
VersionMis à jourAvantage concurrentiel
723/10/2026narrow
622/10/2026narrow
519/10/2026narrow
419/10/2026narrow
318/10/2026narrow
218/10/2026narrow
118/10/2026Indisponible

Sources

Méthode et limites de l’analyse · Comprendre ce concept