Skip to content

PayPal Holdings

NASDAQ: PYPL · USD

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) Economic Moat Analysis—

Avantages concurrentiels, preuves datées et risques d’érosion.

Analyse à actualiser

Narrow avantage concurrentiel

PayPal has a narrow moat supported by its established two-sided payment platform, broad reach, brands and demonstrated consumer engagement. These advantages do not establish strong customer lock-in or pricing power. Branded checkout underperformance and declining operating margins in the first half of 2026 show pressure on monetization and execution. Scale alone does not establish a cost advantage, and the passages do not support exceptional durability.

Network effects

An established platform connecting consumers and merchants creates mutual usefulness through payment acceptance and convenient checkout. Its 439 million active accounts and improving 2025 engagement support a current, limited network advantage; management's proposed data monetization benefits remain potential.

Durabilité
The installed network and demonstrated engagement support persistence, but the passages do not quantify incremental network benefits or establish a defensible duration.
Concurrents
Comparaison non établie
Risques d’érosion
Customers can terminate contracts without a termination penalty after notice. Branded checkout missed management's expectations, and account scale does not necessarily translate into operating results.
Ce qui invaliderait la thèse
Sustained declines in monthly active accounts and transactions per active account, accompanied by falling merchant acceptance or branded checkout use, would undermine the network advantage. Continued volume growth without adequate monetization would further weaken its economic value.
Preuves (4) · Contre-preuves (4)

Intangible assets

The established PayPal and Venmo brands, combined with convenient stored-information checkout and demonstrated engagement, support a modest trust and familiarity advantage. Brand superiority is an issuer assertion rather than independently demonstrated comparative evidence.

Durabilité
Existing usage supports a current advantage, but maintaining customer preference requires continued product execution. No sustained brand price premium is established.
Concurrents
Comparaison non établie
Risques d’érosion
Branded checkout underperformance shows that recognition does not ensure selection. Reputation damage and regulatory restrictions could weaken trust or distribution terms.
Ce qui invaliderait la thèse
Persistent deterioration in branded checkout selection and engagement despite product investment, or demonstrated loss of customer trust and merchant acceptance, would invalidate the claimed brand advantage.
Preuves (4) · Contre-preuves (3)

Évolution depuis la dernière analyse

  • No comparable previous version.

Limites de l’analyse

  • Assessment uses only the supplied passages. Filing dates are February 3, April 7 and July 28, 2026, each with dateKind filed; they are not retrieval dates.
  • No supplied passage identifies a named company as a competitor. Visa and Mastercard appear as contractual counterparties, which does not establish competitor coverage.
  • Network and brand benefits are partly issuer assertions. Scale and engagement support a limited advantage but do not demonstrate comparative conversion, market share, unit-cost superiority or a sustained price premium.
  • No customer cohort retention, merchant renewal or switching-cost measurements are supplied. Aggregate engagement and payment volume provide indirect evidence of repeat demand.
  • Revenue relative to TPV is an imperfect monetization indicator affected by mix and other revenue sources; it does not isolate fee changes or establish realized price cuts.
  • The proxy supplies actual 2025 compensation arrangements and governance mechanisms, but not sufficient ownership information or detailed new-CEO award economics. Proposed 2026 plan provisions are not treated as vested awards or demonstrated incentive outcomes.
  • Regulatory investigations and reputation risks are not findings of misconduct or proof of realized customer losses.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse

Ratios calculés à partir des publications annuelles. Une valeur manquante reste indisponible. Les graphiques détaillés sont accessibles dans les autres onglets.

Indicateurs financiers à confronter à la thèse
PériodeGross marginOperating marginROICFCF margin
2021—16.8%—21.4%
2022—13.9%—18.6%
2023—16.9%—14.2%
2024—16.7%—21.3%
2025—18.3%—16.8%

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Management—

Données vérifiées insuffisantes pour attribuer un score.

Sources et méthode

Analyse à actualiser · Mis à jour 17/10/2026 · Version 7

Interprétation IA fondée sur des extraits vérifiés. Les déclarations de l’entreprise et les limites de couverture restent explicites.

Méthode quality-scores-2 : six catégories de même poids. Le score global exige une couverture complète. Les données manquantes ne valent pas zéro. Les évaluations qualitatives sont des interprétations sourcées, pas des probabilités. 2/6 · 23/10/2026

Moat—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Pouvoir de fixation des prix—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Prévisibilité100

Five consecutive annual periods. Equal weights: nondeclining revenue frequency; revenue-growth volatility (5–40pp); positive FCF frequency; FCF-margin volatility (3–20pp). Stability indicator, not a growth forecast.

Nondeclining revenue years (%)
100.00
Revenue growth volatility (pp)
1.64
Positive FCF years (%)
100.00
FCF margin volatility (pp)
2.75

Solidité financière79

Equal-weight grades: debt/FCF (1–8x), net debt/earnings before interest and tax (0–5x), interest service (1–12x), current ratio (0.75–2x). Earnings use reported operating income, or reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense when operating income is unavailable. Interest service uses earnings/interest expense; if unavailable, it uses reported operating cash flow/cash interest paid, without relabeling cash paid as accrued expense. Nonpositive cash flow/earnings score 0 for their service component; reported zero interest with a positive numerator scores 100. Net cash scores 100 for net leverage. Missing disclosures remain unavailable. General nonfinancial-company rubric, not a credit rating; exceptional and nonoperating gains are not normalized out. IFRS finance-cost and cash-flow classifications retain their reported scope.

debtFcfGrade
84.55
netDebtEbitGrade
88.35
interestCoverageGrade
100.00
currentRatioGrade
42.94
Debt / FCF (x)
2.08
Net debt / operating income (x)
0.58
Interest coverage (x)
13.75
Current ratio (x)
1.29

Allocation du capital—

Missing required inputs: operatingReturn. Three-year equal-weight indicators: pretax return on average invested capital (0–25%; equity + debt − cash, each year and its prior year), share-count growth (0–5%, lower better), share-based cost/revenue (2–20%, lower better), consolidated FCF/net income (0–1x). Return uses reported operating income or, if unavailable, EBIT calculated from reported pretax profit plus reported interest expense; exceptional/nonoperating gains are not normalized out. Share-based cost uses the reported cash-flow add-back or, if absent, separately reported recognized compensation expense; the latter never becomes an FCF adjustment. Nonpositive net income scores 0 for cash conversion; absent income/FCF stays unavailable. Nonpositive invested capital has no defined return and remains unavailable. Does not establish acquisition quality or buyback timing.

3-year average dilution (%)
-5.98
3-year average SBC / revenue (%)
3.95
cashConversionGrade
100.00

Qualité du management—

Awaiting a sourced assessment under the current scoring policy and financial basis.

Preuves

We believe that our competitive strengths include the following: •Two-sided platform—we facilitate online and offline transactions for millions of consumers and merchants.

Business / Our Strengths / two-sided platform · Dépôt 03/02/2026

As of December 31, 2025, we had 439 million active accounts across approximately 200 markets1 around the world.

Business / Our Strengths / active accounts and markets at December 31, 2025 · Dépôt 03/02/2026

• Monthly active accounts grew to 227 million, with transactions per active account (excluding PSP) up 5%.

Proxy Statement Summary / 2025 operating achievements / engagement · Dépôt 07/04/2026

Our PayPal and Venmo branded checkout experiences allow consumers to complete purchases in just a few steps without having to enter payment and address information.

Business / Consumer solutions / branded checkout · Dépôt 03/02/2026

The number of active accounts provides management with additional perspective on the overall scale of our platform, but may not have a direct relationship to our operating results.

Business / active-account metric limitation · Dépôt 03/02/2026

Our contracts with our customers are usually open-ended and can be terminated by either party without a termination penalty after the notice period has lapsed.

Note 1 / customer contract termination terms · Dépôt 03/02/2026

Our recent results have not met our expectations, particularly in branded checkout.

CEO letter / recent results and branded checkout underperformance · Dépôt 07/04/2026

OVERVIEW OF RESULTS OF OPERATIONS The following table provides a summary of our condensed consolidated financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 and 2025: Three Months Ended June 30, Increase/(Decrease) Six Months Ended June 30, Increase/(Decrease) 2026 2025 Dollar Percent 2026 2025 Dollar Percent (In millions, except percentages and per share data) Net revenues $ 8,682 $ 8,288 $ 394 5 % $ 17,035 $ 16,079 $ 956 6 % Operating expenses 7,255 6,784 471 7 % 14,120 13,045 1,075 8 % Operating income 1,427 1,504 (77) (5) % 2,915 3,034 (119) (4) % Operating margin 16 % 18 % ** ** 17 % 19 % ** ** Other income (expense), net (117) 25 (142) (568) % (212) 98 (310) (316) % Income tax expense 206 268 (62) (23) % 486 584 (98) (17) % Effective tax rate 16 % 18 % ** ** 18 % 19 % ** ** Net income (loss) $ 1,104 $ 1,261 $ (157) (12) % $ 2,217 $ 2,548 $ (331) (13) % Net income (loss) per diluted share $ 1.25 $ 1.29 $ (0.04) (3) % $ 2.46 $ 2.58 $ (0.12) (5) % Net cash provided by operating activities $ 1,983 $ 898 $ 1,085 121 % $ 3,117 $ 2,058 $ 1,059 51 % All amounts in tables are rounded to the nearest million, except as otherwise noted.

MD&A / second-quarter and first-half 2026 results · Dépôt 28/07/2026

•Trusted brands—we have built well-recognized and trusted brands, including PayPal and Venmo.

Business / Our Strengths / trusted brands assertion · Dépôt 03/02/2026

• Advanced Venmo monetization, growing revenue approximately 20% to $1.7 billion.3 • Continued to scale Buy Now, Pay Later, with TPV growing more than 20% to over $40 billion.

Proxy Statement Summary / 2025 Venmo revenue and BNPL volume achievements · Dépôt 07/04/2026

Our reputation and brands are globally recognized, important to our business, and affect our ability to attract and retain our customers.

Risk Factors / reputation and brands · Dépôt 03/02/2026

et Cie, S.C.A.’s contractual terms with merchants in Germany prohibiting surcharging and requiring parity presentation of PayPal relative to other payment methods.

Note 13 / regulatory proceedings / German merchant contract provisions · Dépôt 28/07/2026

SIX MONTHS ENDED JUNE 30, 2026 AND 2025 The increase in net revenues was driven primarily by growth in TPV of 10% and growth in revenue earned from an independent chartered financial institution (“partner institution”).

MD&A / first-half 2026 revenue drivers and TPV growth · Dépôt 28/07/2026

Our operating margin declined, reflecting the unfavorable impact of a higher transaction expense growth rate.

MD&A / first-half 2026 operating margin decline · Dépôt 28/07/2026

The fee charged per transaction is adjusted up or down if the volume processed for a specified period is different from prior period defined volumes.

Note 1 / volume-based transaction fee adjustments · Dépôt 03/02/2026

Our transaction revenues are also reduced by certain incentives provided to our customers.

Note 1 / customer incentives reducing transaction revenue · Dépôt 03/02/2026

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS Year Ended December 31, 2025 2024 2023 (In millions) Cash flows from operating activities: Net income (loss) $ 5,233 $ 4,147 $ 4,246 Adjustments to reconcile net income (loss) to net cash provided by operating activities: Transaction and credit losses 1,720 1,442 1,682 Depreciation and amortization 963 1,032 1,072 Stock-based compensation 1,002 1,230 1,475 Deferred income taxes 217 231 (668) Net (gains) losses on strategic investments (162) 285 (201) Gain on divestiture of business, excluding transaction costs — — (356) Accretion of discounts on investments, net of amortization of premiums (83) (335) (367) Adjustments to loans and interest receivable, held for sale 193 125 53 Other (287) (3) (104) Originations of loans receivable, held for sale (36,730) (24,498) (11,470) Proceeds from repayments and sales of loans receivable, originally classified as held for sale 35,414 24,352 10,795 Changes in assets and liabilities: Accounts receivable 144 85 (114) Transaction loss allowance for cash losses, net (1,318) (1,131) (1,188) Other current assets and non-current assets (493) (393) (116) Accounts payable 4 83 7 Other current liabilities and non-current liabilities 599 798 97 Net cash provided by operating activities 6,416 7,450 4,843 Cash flows from investing activities: Purchases of reverse repurchase agreements (201) (424) — Maturities of reverse repurchase agreements 288 337 — Purchases of property and equipment (852) (683) (623) Proceeds from sales of property and equipment 3 1 45 Purchases and originations of loans receivable (20,190) (21,807) (25,198) Proceeds from repayments and sales of loans receivable, originally classified as held for investment 19,688 20,272 26,660 Purchases of investments (20,399) (26,209) (21,980) Maturities and sales of investments 22,933 26,962 24,295 Proceeds from divestiture of business, net of cash divested — — 466 Funds receivable (303) 2,908 (2,943) Collateral posted related to derivative instruments, net (149) 73 (56) Other (21) 259 86 Net cash provided by investing activities 797 1,689 752 Cash flows from financing activities: Borrowings from repurchase agreements 2,949 656 — Repayments of repurchase agreements (2,949) (656) — Proceeds from issuance of common stock 117 95 127 Purchases of treasury stock (6,052) (6,047) (5,002) Tax withholdings related to net share settlements of equity awards (383) (351) (257) Borrowings under financing arrangements 2,637 1,546 1,528 Repayments under financing arrangements (2,155) (1,661) (1,053) Funds payable and amounts due to customers 174 (1,954) 1,861 Collateral received related to derivative instruments and reverse repurchase agreements, net (160) 156 (197) Payments of dividends to stockholders (130) — — Other (6) (60) — Net cash used in financing activities (5,958) (8,276) (2,993) FY 2025 FORM 10-K 62 Table of Contents PayPal Holdings, Inc.

Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows / 2023–2025 · Dépôt 03/02/2026

• Continued our strong capital return program, deploying approximately $6 billion to share repurchases and reducing average share count by approximately 7%; initiated a quarterly cash dividend as part of a disciplined capital allocation strategy.

Proxy Statement Summary / 2025 capital returns and share-count reduction · Dépôt 07/04/2026

Form of Payment Performance Period Performance Criteria Objectives For More Information Salary Cash Ongoing Alignment of salary with performance is evaluated on an annual basis • Rewards individuals’ current contributions • Compensates for expected day-to-day performance • Reflects scope of roles and responsibilities Page 65 Annual Incentive Plan (“AIP”) Cash One year Transaction Margin Dollars and Non-GAAP Operating Income, adjusted for individual performance1 • Rewards successful annual performance • Incentivizes achievement of short-term performance goals designed to drive profitable growth and enhance stockholder value Page 66 Long-Term Incentive Plan (“LTI”) Performance-Based Restricted Stock Units (“PBRSUs”) Three years Earned based on rTSR, measured as compared to the S&P 500 over discrete 12-, 24- and 36-month measurement periods; three-year cliff vesting • Rewards achievement of performance goals over the three-year performance period designed to drive the creation of stockholder value • Intended to support long-term retention objectives while minimizing potential impact of short-term share price volatility by reinforcing the need to deliver consistent performance results over the full performance period Page 69 Restricted Stock Units (“RSUs”) Vests over three years Service-based vesting; ultimate value based on stock price performance • Rewards the creation of long-term value • Recognizes potential future contributions • Intended to support long-term retention objectives Page 71 1 Transaction margin dollars and non-GAAP operating income are not financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.

Compensation Discussion and Analysis / approved 2025 incentive program · Dépôt 07/04/2026

While the value is tied directly to our stock price performance, the service-based RSUs have some value regardless of whether our stock price increases or decreases, and are also designed to provide an appropriate incentive for our NEOs to remain with us throughout the three-year vesting period.

Compensation Discussion and Analysis / service-based RSU limitations · Dépôt 07/04/2026

Miller received a cash retention award of $3 million, which will vest and become payable as to 67% on February 2, 2027 and 33% on February 2, 2028, in each case generally subject to her continued employment with us through the applicable payment date.

Compensation Discussion and Analysis / conditional CFO retention award · Dépôt 07/04/2026

Together with annual director elections, majority voting in uncontested elections, and independent Board leadership, these mechanisms provide meaningful avenues for stockholder influence and accountability.

Governance / annual elections, majority voting and independent Board leadership · Dépôt 07/04/2026

Pursuant to the terms of the clawback policy, upon the occurrence of any of the following triggering events, the Compensation Committee will determine in its discretion whether to require the full or partial forfeiture and/or repayment of any incentive compensation covered by the policy: • a covered employee materially violates any written policy of the Company, including our Code of Business Conduct; • a covered employee causes material financial or reputational harm to PayPal; • a termination of a covered employee’s employment by the Company for cause (as defined in the Executive Severance Plan) or a determination by the Compensation Committee within 12 months following the covered employee’s termination of employment that grounds existed for a termination for cause; or • a material restatement of all or a portion of our financial statements occurs due to a supervisory or other failure by a covered employee.

Compensation policies / discretionary clawback triggers · Dépôt 07/04/2026

Seasoned Leadership to Drive Our Transformation As we announced in early February 2026, the Board appointed Enrique Lores as PayPal’s President and CEO effective March 1.

Independent Board Chair letter / CEO appointment effective March 1, 2026 · Dépôt 07/04/2026

• GAAP operating income increased 14% to $6.1 billion; non-GAAP operating income increased 9% to $6.4 billion.

Proxy Statement Summary / 2025 operating income growth · Dépôt 07/04/2026

Historique des publications

Historique des publications
VersionMis à jourAvantage concurrentiel
723/10/2026narrow
622/10/2026narrow
519/10/2026narrow
418/10/2026narrow
318/10/2026narrow
218/10/2026narrow
118/10/2026Indisponible

Sources

Méthode et limites de l’analyse · Comprendre ce concept